Friday Estimates: Toy Story Dominates Chart, Doesn’t Have Aladdin-Like Legs

June 29, 2019

Toy Story 4

It looks like June won’t end on a high note, as Toy Story 4 is falling faster than hoped for. The film earned $17.04 million on Friday, which is almost as much as the rest of the top five earned in total. However, and more importantly, it is 64% lower than the film’s opening Friday and that’s a sharper decline that I was anticipating. Granted, its $196.03 million running tally is in line with budget expectations, so it will break even, even if it doesn’t match expectations. A profitable disappointment.

Speaking of profitable disappointments, Annabelle Comes Home managed $6.6 million on Friday, putting it on pace for $20 million over the three-day weekend and a total opening of $30 million. This is better than it looked after Wednesday’s numbers, but it is still the weakest in the franchise. This is a little surprising, as its reviews and its B minus from CinemaScore are actually good for a horror film, so the franchise shouldn’t have collapsed like this. Maybe people who were burned by The Curse of La Llorona decided to stay home this time around. The film only cost $26 million to make, so it should still earn a healthy profit, but if The Conjuring 3 struggles, then the franchise could be over.

Yesterday was right behind with $6.06 million, which is a little better than expected and it should earn between $16 million and $17 million over the weekend. The film’s reviews are good, but not great, while it earned an A minus from CinemaScore, so audiences are liking it more than critics did. If the film can have solid legs here and find an audience internationally, then it could break even during its initial push into the home market. If it fails to do either of those, it could still break even, eventually.

Aladdin continues to impress, earning $2.90 million on Friday for a total of $299.42 million domestically. It will have crossed $300 million by the time you read this.

The Secret Life of Pets 2 earned $2.04 million on Friday and at worst should come within a rounding error of our $7 million prediction.

Avengers: Endgame was re-released with additional footage, helping it return to the top ten with $1.86 million on Friday. Before this re-release, the film was less than $30 million away from overtaking Avatar on the all-time worldwide chart. This might not be enough to get there just on its domestic numbers; it depends on if Spider-Man: Far from Home can help carry it the rest of the way. I don’t know how wide the re-release is happening internationally. There aren’t many markets outside of North America where this would work.

Filed under: Friday Estimates, Avengers: Endgame, Toy Story 4, The Secret Life of Pets 2, Spider-Man: Far From Home, The Curse of La Llorona, Aladdin, Yesterday, Annabelle Comes Home, The Conjuring