Weekend Predictions: December Will Start on a Chilly Note

December 5, 2019

Playmobil

The weekend after Thanksgiving is one of the worst weeks of the year to release a film wide. In fact, many years there are no wide releases. This year, Playmobil gets thrown to the wolves, or to the mercy of Frozen II, to be more specific. I can’t imagine it will survive the competition. In fact, most think the wide expansion of Dark Waters will beat it at the box office and that film isn’t expected to land in the top five. This weekend last year had no wide releases and Frozen II should earn more than last year’s top two films, Ralph Breaks the Internet and The Grinch, earned combined. December should get off to a fast start on the year-over-year competition and hopefully that’s a good omen going forward.

After a record-breaking opening weekend and a record-breaking Thanksgiving weekend, Frozen II looks to continue its box office dominance with a third trip to the top of the charts. It is a family film and this is a post-holiday weekend, so it will suffer a greater-than-50% drop off. Ralph Breaks the Internet fell 55% during its post-Thanksgiving weekend and if Frozen II holds on as well, it would make just under $39 million this weekend. I think Frozen II’s level of hype will result in slightly shorter legs, so look for $38 million over the weekend, giving it an easy path to $400 million before the end of the Christmas break.

Knives Out earned almost as much over three days last weekend and many predicted it would earn over five. The film has also earned some of the best reviews of the year and that should help its legs. This is a post-holiday weekend, so falling 50% seems likely, but that would still give the film $13 million this weekend and a running tally of over $60 million after just two weeks of release.

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Ford v Ferrari, and Queen and Slim will be in a close race for third place. So close, in fact, that the three of them will likely switch places throughout the weekend. Ford v Ferrari did have the lead last weekend, so it would have to drop the most to fall out of third place. On the other hand, this will be Queen and Slim’s sophomore stint and it isn’t getting as many new theaters as I thought it would, so it will likely fall the fastest. All three films should earn between $6 million and $7 million, with Ford v Ferrari on top, and A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood next, followed by Queen and Slim.

Dark Waters did well last weekend, earning more than $600,000 despite playing in just 94 theaters. However, while that is a good result, it isn’t one that demands a wide expansion this weekend. Apparently that’s what is happening. I think that will turn out to be a mistake and getting significantly past $4 million isn’t on the cards. That said, if it does do well this weekend, its reviews could help it stick around for a while.

On the other and, Playmobil’s reviews suggest it will start slow and fade fast. The direct competition is too massive for a smaller family film to survive. STX is trying a novel approach by giving greater discounts for kids to see the movie and that might draw in some families. Or it could just result in an even smaller box office. I think it will be the latter as most kids will want to see Frozen II a third or fourth time instead of seeing this film for the first time. Look for an opening weekend of $3 million.

- Theater Counts

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Frozen II, PLAYMOBIL, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Ford v. Ferrari, Queen & Slim, Dark Waters, Knives Out