Weekend Estimates: 1917 Fires First Shots in 2020 Box Office Race

January 12, 2020

1917

1917 is matching projections based on Friday estimates perfectly with a weekend estimate of $36.5 million, which would push its total run to $39.2 million so far. This is a little above our prediction, and much higher than studio expectations. It has some of the best reviews in the top ten and a solid A-minus rating from CinemaScore, both of which should help its legs. Its legs will get even longer if it does well in the Oscar nominations tomorrow. Interestingly, the film isn’t skewing as old as I thought it would, as 47% of its audience was in the 18-through-34 age bracket, compared to just 18% at 55 and above. The film is earning $19.92 million from 30 international markets, although it is being released by multiple studios outside the domestic market, which makes tracking more difficult, as no one studio is giving a complete picture. Hopefully we will get enough smaller details to piece things together by Wednesday.

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker is earning an estimated weekend box office of $15.06 million, just shy of our $16 million prediction. It is still on pace to reach $500 million domestically with no trouble, but it won’t get there next weekend, nor will it get there before it is knocked out of the top five. Internationally, the film is adding another $24.2 million in 55 markets for totals of $511.4 million internationally and $989.6 million worldwide. The film is just days away from becoming the ninth film released in 2019 to hit $1 billion. It struggled somewhat in its debut in South Korea, only earning second place with $2.5 million over the weekend and $3.1 million including previews. It topped the chart in the Philippines with $1.0 million over the weekend and $3.0 million including previews. Those were the last two markets for the movie, but it has done well enough to guarantee a healthy profit, even if it missed great expectations.

It appears that Jumanji: The Next Level will bounce back from Friday with $14.0 million over the weekend, giving it a total of $257.1 million after a month of release. Add in its $22.6 million international haul from 10,200 screens in 65 markets and you get totals of $414 million internationally and $671 million worldwide. This includes a $1 million opening in Argentina, while it debuts in Brazil next weekend to wrap up its run.

Just Mercy and Like a Boss are in a tie for fourth place with $10 million each. For Just Mercy, this is a little better than predicted and its reviews and its A plus from CinemaScore strongly suggest long legs. It isn’t living up to its Awards Season hype, but that won’t stop it from being profitable in the long run. The audience was 56% female and very diverse ethnically with no majority. Caucasians were ahead of African-Americans, but by a tiny 39% to 36% margin.

On the other hand, Like a Boss’s $10 million is likely not enough to be a significant financial success. It earned the worst reviews of the weekend by a substantial margin, and its B rating from CinemaScore isn’t going to help its legs either. Furthermore, comedies rarely translate into other languages / cultures, so its international prospects are dire. That said, the film reportedly cost just under $30 million to make, so it could still break even, eventually. Demographically, the film skewed heavily towards women, who made up 60% of the audience, while 18-34 year-olds represented 64% of the audience. The audience was ethnically diverse with 25% African-American and 21% Hispanic.

Underwater is only earning seventh place with $7.0 million during its opening weekend, but it could have been worse. Mixed reviews and a C rating from CinemaScore are not going to help its legs; however, it is a horror film and a C rating is average for the genre. The audience was almost perfectly split between women and men, with 52% of the audience female. Age wise, the film’s biggest demographic was the 18-34 year-old range, but it was only at 38%, so lots of diversity there. Ethnically, the film’s audience was 53% Caucasian and 21% Hispanic. 11% was in the Asian / other category, which is higher than their percentage in the overall population.

- Weekend Box Office Chart
- Friday Box Office Chart
- Thursday Preview Chart

- Friday Estimates
- Thursday Previews
- Weekend Predictions
- Theater Counts

- 2019 Domestic Chart
- 2019 Worldwide Chart
- 2020 Domestic Chart

Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Underwater, Just Mercy, Jumanji: The Next Level, Like a Boss, 1917