1917 is the Hot Oscar Favorite

February 9, 2020

1917

1917 starts out as the hot favorite to take the most awards as we go into Oscar evening. 63% of contestants in our Predict the Academy Awards contest picked it for the Best Picture award, and it is favorite in five other categories, including directing and cinematography. No other film is favored in more than two categories, and readers are showing a high level of confidence in a lot of winners.

There are a few categories with virtually unanimous agreement on the winner. 96% of predictions go with Parasite for Best International Film; 96% also predict Joaquin Phoenix will get Best Actor; and Roger Deakins gets 94% of the votes for cinematography on 1917. It would truly be a surprise if any of these three didn’t win.

Brad Pitt is a big favorite for Best Supporting Actor, with 89% of votes. Renée Zellweger received 86% support for her Leading Actress win. That makes Laura Dern, with 82% for Actress in a Supporting Role, the “weakest” favorite for the acting awards, and Scarlett Johansson an outside bet (with roughly 1 in 10 votes) for an upset.

Now’s probably a good time to note that an upset in the acting categories wouldn’t be that huge a surprise. If we treat the vote share in each category as the probability that someone will win, then the probability that all four favorites win the acting awards is actually about 60%—a little better than a coin flip. So a surprise in one category wouldn’t be that surprising in the grand scheme of things. All four losing would be a jaw-dropper though (around a 5 in 100,000 chance, if we assume votes translate to probability of a win).

Two major categories that look more uncertain are Animated Feature and Best Documentary. In the former category, Toy Story 4 is the favorite with 61% of the vote, although Klaus (with 23%) and Missing Link (11%) can’t be ruled out. Among documentaries, American Factory scores 53% of votes, ahead of Honeyland (20%) and For Sama (13%). It’s probably fair to call that category wide open, with American Factory the marginal favorite.

The writing awards are predicted to go to runners up in the Best Picture category. Parasite is the favorite for Original Screenplay, but not far ahead (49% to 35%) of Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood. Jojo Rabbit is likewise a slight favorite for Adapted Screenplay, with Little Women hot on its heals—their respective vote shares are 46% and 32%.

If you’re hoping to win our contest, your chances are likely to be determined by accurate your predictions are all of these tricky-to-predict-but-with-a-clearish-favorite categories.

The technical categories is where 1917 is expected to really shine, with awards for Cinematography, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Visual Effects. The last of these categories is a chance for Avengers: Endgame, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, or The Lion King to get a prize, though, and all three films are landmarks in their own right, so Academy members may want to acknowledge their significance.

Other technical awards are expected to be spread fairly evenly, with Little Women favored for Costume Design, Ford v. Ferrari for Film Editing, Bombshell for Makeup and Hairstyling, Joker for Original Score, Rocketman for Original Song, and Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood for Production Design. Although things are unlikely to land exactly like that, this might be a night when virtually everyone’s a winner.

When all is said and done, this year’s poll suggests that we could see 1917 end up with easily the most Oscars tonight, as well as being crowned Best Picture. Parasite could be the film to topple it though, and an early sign of that would be wins for that film in the Film Editing or Production Design categories. Parasite has enough support (and, honestly, is a good enough film) that it wouldn’t be much of a surprise if it came out of the night the big winner. The real outsiders that could surprise seem to be Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, and Little Women.

- Predicted winners in each category
- Total votes in each category

Bruce Nash

Filed under: Brad Pitt, Renée Zellweger, Laura Dern, Scarlett Johansson, Joaquin Phoenix, Roger Deakins