Weekend estimates: Infidel posts solid opening, under the circumstances

September 20, 2020

Infidel

It looks as though we’ll have another down weekend for total domestic box office, with perhaps $11 million in combined ticket sales for all movies, compared to $12.3 million last weekend, but there are a few small grains of good news to be found. Infidel topped (very modest) expectations, with a projected opening of $1.5 million, and the four other films still playing in wide release that have reported so far all had relatively good holds by historical standards. Tenet hit the $250 million mark worldwide, but Mulan continues to struggle.

Here are the details…

On Thursday, our model predicted a $1.2 million opening for Infidel, which, to be honest, looked on the high side. So Cloudburst Entertainment’s Sunday morning projection of a $1.5 million opening is welcome news. While clearly low by historical standards, it does suggest that there’s some demand for thrillers at the moment. Unhinged opened with $4 million a month ago from a similar number of theaters, but had the benefit of more publicity, thanks to being the first wide release since March, and a more bankable lead actor in Russell Crowe. Unhinged has now earned nearly four times its biggest weekend ($15.7 million in total), and is expected to earn another $1.3 million this weekend, so Infidel is in with a shot of $7 million or $8 million in total, which wouldn’t be a bad result.

The other crumb of comfort in this weekend’s results is the holds for the films returning in wide release. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge on the Run, which is only reporting grosses from Canada, will be down just 7% from last weekend. Unhinged is off 14%, The New Mutants and The Personal History of David Copperfield are heading for 23%-or-so drops, and Tenet will decline 30%. Those numbers don’t suggest a strengthening market (apart from possibly in Canada), but rather a sign of the lack of competition right now. Unfortunately, with the next wide release no expected until October 9, there won’t be much competition for a while.

From a global perspective, the big news is that Tenet will pass $250 million worldwide this weekend, or at least come very close. Warner Bros. are projecting a $4.7 million weekend domestically, for $36.1 million to date. That’s a little behind China, where the film is projected to earn $5.6 million for $60.6 million so far. It opened in Japan this weekend with $4.3 million, and had decent holds in Russia ($1.6 million for $8.2 million to date), Hong Kong ($1.5m for $4.1m), and France ($1.4m for $15.6m). The film opened number one in Mexico with $850,000. A Warner Bros. spokesperson added, “As we have always said, and as these numbers clearly indicate, the film’s run is a marathon and not a sprint.”

Mulan, meanwhile, is not even able to claim a marathoner’s pace (perhaps it’s on a casual stroll?). It will earn around $10.9 million internationally this weekend for $57 million to date. That includes $36.2 million in China, where it’ll earn $6.5 million this weekend, and $1.2 million from South Korea over four days, which makes it the top film in the market. Korea is still in the midst of recovery, but $1.2 million is a disappointing result—Tenet opened with $5.1 million in five days by comparison. Overall, the film’s performance has been poor, with the Middle East, where it has earned $5.1 million to date, and declined by a respectable 39% this weekend, a rare bright spot.

Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Mulan, The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge on the Run, The New Mutants, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Tenet, Unhinged, Infidel, Russell Crowe