Weekend projections: Disney projects mighty $143 million debut for Love and Thunder

July 10, 2022

Thor: Love and Thunder

Thor: Love and Thunder will start out with an impressive $143-million opening weekend, according to Disney’s Sunday-morning projection. That’ll comfortably be the best weekend for the Thor franchise, ahead of Ragnarok’s $122.7 million back in 2017. On the downside, Jurassic World: Dominion’s looks likely to keep its place as the second-best debut of 2022, with $145 million, which means Love and Thunder is coming in a bit below where our model expected as of Friday morning.

Here’s how the domestic numbers look as of Sunday (click on the image for the full chart of films reporting so far)…



The comparison between Thor: Love and Thunder and Jurassic World: Dominion over their first three and a bit days in release is telling. Love and Thunder posted $29 million in previews to Dominion’s $18 million. Taking those numbers out of Friday’s box office for each film, Dominion was already leading on Friday, with $41.5 million from that day, compared to Thor’s $40.5 million. On Saturday, Thor is estimated to have taken $42.1 million compared to Jurassic World’s $46.9 million. Disney is predicting Thor will earn $31.4 million on Sunday compared to the $38.6 million earned by Dominion.

Thor’s previews-to-weekend multiplier is headed for a number a little less than 5, which is worrying considering that Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness had a multiplier a little over 5 on its opening weekend.

In short, Thor’s trendline is looking worrisome after a great opening night. Perhaps that’s to be expected, given how well established the Marvel fanbase is at this point. But a multiplier of less than 5 is unusually low—the lowest for a blockbuster film since the pandemic, in fact—which suggests it’s not getting enough good word-of-mouth to draw in casual filmgoers.

The rest of the top 10 are a mixed bag. Doctor Strange performed well ahead of expectations, most likely because it was the second choice of Thor fans who couldn’t get into sold-out showings of the new release. Marcel the Shell with Shoes One is the film to watch over the next few weeks. It has reached the top 10 this weekend while playing in just 48 theaters and will expand wide next weekend.

Overall, the final total box office for the weekend looks as though it will be about $235 million. That’s below what the model predicted on Friday, but still makes the the best weekend of 2022 so far.

- Studio weekend projections
- All-time biggest weekends - All-time top-grossing movies in North America
- All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

Bruce Nash,

Filed under: Thor