Weekend projections: Scream VI debuts with franchise-best $44.5 million

March 12, 2023

Scream VI

Scream VI has lost a little momentum through the weekend but will still post the best opening for Scream franchise, topping the $34.7 million earned by Scream 3 on its opening weekend back in 2000. Its $44.5 million is also well ahead of the $30 million earned by last year’s Scream.

Here’s how the domestic numbers look as of Sunday morning (click on the image for the full chart of films reporting so far)…



While Scream VI is coming it behind our Friday-morning prediction, which factored in Thursday’s previews, its box office for the weekend is right in line with our pre-preview prediction of $44.4 million. A key element in that prediction was our model’s estimate of the overall market strength, which currently stands at 82% of the pre-pandemic audience. When 2022’s Scream was released, the market strength was estimated at only 50%. The model’s reasoning was that a 32% stronger market would translate into a $44.4 million opening because Scream opened with $30 million, and the core audience for the franchise is roughly the same from movie to movie.

The model’s reasoning could be wrong of course. There are many factors to influence the opening weekend for a film, and it’s never the case that one of them is the only explanation for the final result. However, this performance does at least give me more confidence that the market is back to something around 80% of its pre-pandemic level, and that our annual prediction, which is based on an assumption that the market will run at 90% strength for the year as a whole, is reasonable.

The rest of the results for this weekend look fairly solid. Creed III is having a very good second weekend, and will pass $100 million at the domestic box office today. Avatar: The Way of Water might be getting a little pre-Oscars bump too.

The remainder of the top 10 are coming in a bit behind Friday’s predictions, but not by a huge amount. 65 is, like Scream VI, losing a little momentum as the weekend goes on, but will still come in well ahead of our model’s original prediction. Champions is arguably a bit more of a miss, but it wasn’t long ago that we would be celebrating a $5-million opening for a comedy, and this is just the sort of film that has been missing from theaters for the last few years, so its presence is a very welcome one for theater owners.

Overall, we’re looking at another “up” weekend at the box office, and the sixth weekend of 2023 where the total box office will top $100 million. Last year, we had just managed two $100-million weekends at this point in the year, and the usual pre-pandemic total would be eight out of ten weekends hitting the milestone. That’s another encouraging sign, and having Shazam! Fury of the Gods, John Wick: Chapter 4 and Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves debuting over the remaining three weekends in March means we’ll end the first quarter of the year in good shape.

- Studio weekend projections
- All-time top-grossing movies in North America
- All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Bruce Nash,

Filed under: Scream