Saturday update: Dune shooting for $80-million debut after $32.2-million opening day

March 2, 2024

Dune: Part Two

After posting a respectable $12 million from previews on Thursday, Dune: Part Two added another $20.2 million during the “calendar day” on Friday to post an excellent $32.2 million “opening day,” according to Warner Bros.. That’s just a shade behind our model’s expectation, and brings our weekend prediction down closer to $80 million than $90 million. Read on for the details…

Here’s what the model makes of Dune: Part Two’s performance compared to other movies…



Ant-Man and the Wasp and Solo: A Star Wars Story had the two opening days closest to Dune: Part Two, and their final weekend numbers are a good approximation for where Dune will land by the end of the day on Sunday.

Landing somewhere between Ant-Man’s $75.8 million and Solo’s $84.4 million would be a good result for Dune 2, and around twice Dune’s opening back in 2021. That film went on to earn $110 million at the domestic box office. Ant-Man ended with $217 million, and Solo with $214 million. It’s obviously very early days for Dune: Part Two, but something around $220 million is a reasonable target for its domestic run.

The first film in the renewed franchise earned $325 million internationally, so topping $500 million worldwide seems well on the cards right now. We should have more news on the international front, along with Warner Bros.’ official weekend projection, tomorrow.

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Bruce Nash,