Weekend projections: Dune hits pay dirt with $81.5-million debut

March 3, 2024

Dune: Part Two

Dune: Part Two is headed for an excellent $81.5-million opening weekend, according to Warner Bros.’ Sunday-morning projection. That’s a little higher than our model’s Saturday-morning prediction of $79.4 million, and almost exactly double the first weekend earnings of Dune back in October, 2021. In addition to the strong top-line number, there are some early signs that the studio has a major hit on its hands.

Here’s how the weekend numbers look as of Sunday morning (click on the image for the full chart of films reporting so far)…



Although Dune 2 is coming in a bit behind our Friday-morning prediction, that’s partly for technical reasons. Warner Bros. didn’t split out spending on their IMAX special event last Sunday from Thursday preview earnings. We ignore those kind of details in the model because the studios aren’t consistent in how they report preview numbers, but in this case it resulted in a higher prediction. That said, there are a host of other factors that contribute to a film’s final opening weekend number (the number of theaters that don’t show previews, word of mouth etc.), so there is an argument that Dune 2 doesn’t have fantastic legs right now.

However, the audience reception to the film counts heavily in its favor. The studio reports an “A” CinemaScore and 95% Audience Score on Rotten Tomatoes. Also preview formats are representing about 48% of business for the film this weekend, with “strong results from IMAX and Dolby Cinema, PLF/Premium Large Formats, 70mm, and Motion Seating” they say. As Scott Mendelson pointed out the other day, some people may be waiting to get a good seat at a great theater to experience the film for the first time. That could substantially help its legs.

Our model is predicting a final domestic total for Dune: Part Two of $217 million as of this morning. Its 95% confidence range is very wide at this point, with anything from $159 million to $376 million a possibility. From where I’m sitting, it looks like Warner Bros. can bank on $200 million, with something closer to $300 million a real possibility. While not a big surprise (our last pre-release prediction expected the film to finish with $270 million), it’s confirmation that Dune is a hit domestically.

Internationally, the studio reports an opening weekend of $97 million from 24,256 screens, up 76% from the first film in like-for-like markets, and number one in 67 out the 71 markets it opened in this weekend. Its biggest international markets are the United Kingdom, with $11.8 million; France, $9.6m; Germany, $9.1m; Korea, $6.9m; Australia, $6.0m; Mexico, $3.9m; Italy, $3.9m; Spain, $3.5m; Poland, $2.7m; Taiwan, $2.6m; the Netherlands, $2.5m; and Sweden, $2.0m.

If that 76% increase from the first film holds true across all markets, the film with end up with around $570 internationally. The big question mark is China, which has been less hospitable to US films recently, and was the top territory for the first film. Dune 2 opens there on March 8, and in Japan on March 15.

Right now, with perhaps $250 million domestically and $550 million internationally, Dune: Part Two looks like it will earn around $800 million worldwide. The chances of a Dune: Part Three look good.

- Studio weekend projections
- All-time top-grossing movies in North America
- All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Bruce Nash,