Movie Spotlight - Shrek 3

Shrek 3
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Shrek the Third is the middle child in this month's family of mega-blockbusters. Wedged between two family-oriented action movies, it will be trying to carve a niche as the most family-friendly movie playing during the Memorial Day season, and hoping to set some records into the bargain. With Mike Myers, Cameron Diaz, Eddie Murphy and Antonio Banderas reuniting, and some fairytale clichés still ripe for mockery, this seems like a surefire hit. But Shrek the Third is also the third movie in a digitally-animated franchise, which is something the movie world hasn't seen before, and that maybe suggests some uncertainty over how the movie will faire when it hits theaters.

We'll take a look at a history of the genre, and see how Shrek stacks up in the biggest month for blockbusters in movie history.

- Story continues below

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The Digital Domain

Top Grossing Digitally-Animated Movies 1977 - 2007, Adjusted for Ticket Price Inflation

	Movie	Distributor	Release Date	Total Gross	Inflation-Adjusted Gross
1	Shrek 2	Dreamworks SKG	5/19/2004	$436,721,703	$450,062,074
2	Finding Nemo	Buena Vista	5/30/2003	$339,714,978	$361,123,221
3	Toy Story 2	Buena Vista	11/19/1999	$245,852,179	$308,575,394
4	Shrek	Dreamworks SKG	5/18/2001	$267,655,011	$303,658,161
5	Monsters, Inc.	Buena Vista	11/2/2001	$255,870,172	$289,798,709
6	Toy Story	Buena Vista	11/22/1995	$191,796,233	$281,648,593
7	The Incredibles	Buena Vista	11/5/2004	$261,437,578	$269,124,850
8	Cars	Buena Vista	6/9/2006	$244,052,771	$244,052,770
9	A Bug's Life	Buena Vista	11/20/1998	$162,798,565	$219,866,731
10	Happy Feet	Warner Bros.	11/17/2006	$197,992,827	$197,992,830
11	Ice Age: The Meltdown	20th Century Fox	3/31/2006	$195,330,621	$195,330,622
12	Ice Age	20th Century Fox	3/15/2002	$176,387,405	$194,938,497
13	Madagascar	Dreamworks SKG	5/27/2005	$193,202,933	$193,202,932
14	The Polar Express	Warner Bros.	11/10/2004	$172,796,043	$177,534,206
15	Shark Tale	Dreamworks SKG	10/1/2004	$160,861,908	$165,772,644
Complete Analysis

Digital animation is still a young medium and at times that can make predicting how such films will perform difficult. For instance, there was a lot of trepidation when Toy Story was released since analysts had little to go on when trying to predict how well audiences would react to the new form of animation. And then a few years later Toy Story 2 became the first sequel for a digitally-animated movie and again the analysts were dumbfounded as to what could happen. Of course, Toy Story 2 surpassed its predecessor at the box office. In fact, in the nearly 20 years since the first such film, there have only been three sequels and all three have out-performed their predecessors. However, now we have a new first as Shrek the Third makes the franchise the first to hit the Trilogy. ... And again the analysts don't know what to think.

Shrek Movie Comparisons

	Shrek	Shrek 2	Shrek 3
Budget	$50,000,000	$70,000,000	$100,000,000 est.
US P&A Budget	$30,000,000	$48,500,000	$60,000,000 est.
Opening Theaters	3,587	4,163	4,000+
Opening Friday	$11,541,000	$28,340,295
Opening Weekend	$42,347,760	$108,037,878
Opening Weekend as % of US Total Gross	15.8%	24.7%
Widest Theater Count	3,715	4,223
Second Weekend	$42,481,425	$72,170,363
Second Weekend Change	+0.32%	-33.20%
US Total Gross	$267,655,011	$436,721,703
International Total Gross	$220,000,000	$479,400,000
Worldwide Total Gross	$487,655,011	$916,121,703

When Shrek debuted in 2001 it because the first non-Pixar digitally-animated movie to become a major hit. In fact, it became the biggest such hit at that time. Shrek 2 opened with huge expectations and topped them all, becoming the biggest hit of the year and the biggest digitally-animated film of all time. Now Shrek the Third hopes to continue the franchise's winning ways, and perhaps break a few records along the way. On the other hand, if it only make the same amount as the first Shrek film, then there will be a lot of talk about how risky it would be to move ahead with Shrek 4.

The $400 million club could get crowded this Month

Movies to Earn Over $400 Million at the US Box Office

	Released	Film Name	Total Box Office
1	1997	Titanic	$600,788,188
2	1977	Star Wars Ep. IV: A New Hope	$460,998,007
3	2004	Shrek 2	$436,721,703
4	1982	ET: The Extra-Terrestrial	$435,110,554
5	1999	Star Wars Ep. I: The Phantom Menace	$431,088,297
6	2006	Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest	$423,416,000
7	2002	Spider-Man	$403,706,375

There have only been seven films to cross $400 million at the box office, at least at the time of writing. Two weeks before Shrek the Third opens Spider-Man 3 set out on its quest for that mark. Like all three of the May releases trying to reach $400 million, Shrek the Third has elements that should help it reach that rare milestone and serious hindrances as well.

One of the advantages for Shrek the Third is its target audience, or to be more precise, its two main target audiences. As a digital animation, it will be courting the CG enthusiasts, as well as the families. Also, while both of these audiences have had their share of films so far this year, Shrek will dominate the market until Surf's Up debuts three weeks later. On the other hand, one has to admit that since Shrek 2 opened in 2004, digital animation has lost a lot of its drawing power. Also, there are some grumblings that the franchise is running out of steam and perhaps the studio should not have started working on Shrek 4 quite so soon.

Where does this leave the film's chances? A $100 million opening weekend is not only obtainable, but on the low end of expectations. And with Memorial Day long weekend just a weekend later, it could have the best best sophomore stint of all time on its way to $400 million.