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Thursday, October 30, 2014

Predicted Oscar Winners - 2012

We have received all the votes now in our annual Predict the Oscars contest, and the big prize of the night is predicted to go to The Artist, which scored a remarkable 86% of all votes, making it the hottest favorite to win the prize since Slumdog Millionaire won 91% of the votes in 2009. Several other categories have overwhelming favorites, with Rango winning 86% support for Best Animated Feature, Christopher Plummer scoring 88% for Supporting Actor, and Octavia Spencer 84% for Supporting Actress. Numbers readers seem very confident in their predictions this year in general, with the winner in 21 out of 24 categories receiving more than half of the votes.

The Artist is favorite in six categories overall, with Michel Hazanavicius predicted to win Best Director and Jean Dujardin getting most votes for Best Actor. It also tops the poll for Costume Design, Film Editing and Original Score. Hugo looks as though it will pick up the second-largest haul with three technical awards: Art Directing, Sound Editing and Sounds Mixing. Other than that, only one film is predicted to win more than one award: The Help's Viola Davis is expected to join Octavia Spencer and give the film both actress awards.

With the Oscars spread far and wide, we should be in for an interesting evening. You can follow along here at The Numbers as C.S. Live Blogs the event tonight.

- Click here to see the complete vote tallies in each category

Percentage figures are the percentage of The Numbers readers who believe a movie or performance will win.

Best Picture The Artist  (86.44%)
Best Animated Feature Film Rango  (86.20%)
Directing The Artist Michel Hazanavicius (74.79%)
Actress in a Leading Role The Help Viola Davis (71.19%)
Actor in a Leading Role The Artist Jean Dujardin (63.14%)
Actress in a Supporting Role The Help Octavia Spencer (84.11%)
Actor in a Supporting Role Beginners Christopher Plummer (88.35%)
Best Writing: Original Screenplay Midnight in Paris Woody Allen (73.94%)
Best Writing: Adapted Screenplay The Descendants Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon & Jim Rash (76.48%)
Foreign Language Film Jodaeiye Nader az Simin Iran (75.11%)
Best Documentary: Feature Length Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory  (44.75%)
Best Documentary: Short Film The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom (37.55%)
Short Film: Live Action The Shore (48.17%)
Short Film: Animated The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore (53.00%)
Achievement in Cinematography The Tree of Life Emmanuel Lubezki (57.96%)
Achievement in Art Directing Hugo Dante Ferretti, Francesca Lo Schiavo (71.28%)
Achievement in Costume Design The Artist Mark Bridges (61.70%)
Achievement in Makeup The Iron Lady Mark Coulier, J. Roy Helland (51.49%)
Achievement in Visual Effects Rise of the Planet of the Apes Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White and Daniel Barrett (60.51%)
Achievement in Film Editing The Artist Anne-Sophie Bion and Michel Hazanavicius (64.89%)
Achievement in Sound Editing Hugo Philip Stockton and Eugene Gearty (56.38%)
Achievement in Sound Mixing Hugo Tom Fleischman and John Midgley (63.40%)
Music: Original Score The Artist Ludovic Bource (83.44%)
Music: Original Song The Muppets Man or Muppet (89.15%)

We'll have a full report on how our predictions matched up to reality on Monday morning.