April 18th, 2017
As expected, The Fate of the Furious dominated the box office this weekend, earning nearly a 60% share of the total box office. It did miss predictions, however, with “just” $98.79 million. This is the curse of great expectations. Overall, the box office rose 40% from last weekend, reaching $167 million. However, this was 5.1% lower than the same weekend last year. Had The Fate of the Furious matched expectations, then 2017 would have had a 5% lead over last year. Year-to-date, 2017 has pulled in $3.37 billion and has a 7.2% lead over 2016. That will shrink as last year’s The Jungle Book’s legs will undoubtedly be better than The Fate of the Furious’s legs, but I don’t think 2017 will fall behind 2016 any time soon.
April 11th, 2017
It was a good weekend at the box office, considering the time of year, but this was almost entirely due to holdovers. The Boss Baby earned $26.36 million, which was within a rounding of our prediction, while Beauty and the Beast was relatively close behind. This meant the best new release, Smurfs: The Lost Village, only managed third place. Furthermore, it wasn’t even close to second place. Overall, the box office fell 30% from last weekend. More importantly, it was 14% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2017 has pulled in $3.15 billion becoming the fastest year to reach $3 billion. It is also 6.4% or $190 million ahead of last year’s pace. It is still early, but 2017 is starting to build up a lead that will act as a cushion when it inevitably hits a soft patch.
April 9th, 2017
The Boss Baby will score another win at the box office this weekend, with Fox predicting a total of $26.3 million for the weekend, down 48% from its debut, and $89.4 million to date. That’s a remarkably strong second weekend, considering that Beauty and the Beast will be down virtually the same proporation—45%—in its fourth weekend. Disney’s blockbuster will do $25 million for a cume of $432 million so far domestically. With $545.1 million internationally, the film now has $977.4 million worldwide, and will pass the billion dollar mark this week.
April 7th, 2017
There was an upset during Thursday’s previews, as Going in Style actually led the way with $600,000. However, demographics suggest it won’t remain in the lead for long. This is still not a great start, but it is nearly perfectly in line with expectations. The film’s reviews rose a little to 42% positive, but this still won’t help its legs. Look for an opening weekend of $10 million, more or less.
April 6th, 2017
It is the first weekend of April and there are two and a half films opening wide this week. The widest of these is Smurfs: The Lost Village, but direct competition is going to hurt it at the box office. Going in Style is aiming to be a sleeper hit, but its reviews will likely get in the way of that. Meanwhile, The Case for Christ is opening in barely more than 1,000 theaters and it is aiming for the churchgoing crowd and no one else. On the positive side, it is Easter next weekend, so it should have good legs. Unfortunately for the new releases, it looks like The Boss Baby will have a relatively easy time repeating in first place, while Beauty and the Beast will be close behind in second. This weekend last year, The Boss opened in first place with $23.59 million, while Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice was right behind with $23.36 million. This week we should have at least two films top that, perhaps even three if Smurfs: The Lost Village is on the high end of expectations. 2017 should continue to add to its lead over 2016.
April 1st, 2017
March was a month of extremes, led by two strong performances: Beauty and the Beast breaking records and Logan cracking $200 million with ease. There were also two other $100 million hits and another potential $100 million hit that we don’t have significant box office numbers for yet. This is fantastic. On the opposite end, there were three films on last month’s list that didn’t even open truly wide. This month won’t be as lucrative at the top, as The Fate of the Furious is the only film expected to top $100 million. Fortunately, it is expected to open with over $100 million. On the other extreme, there are many, many films on this list that I’m not sure will open wide. Fortunately, last April wasn’t any better. The Jungle Book made nearly $1 billion worldwide, but the other nine films combined made less than half of that. To emphasize: the other nine films that opened last April averaged less than $50 million worldwide each. If The Fate of the Furious can just come close to the previous installment of the franchise, then 2017 has a solid shot at topping 2016.
March 31st, 2017
There are three wide releases opening next weekend, but only Smurfs: The Lost Village has a shot at topping the chart. Going in Style would be happy with a total of $50 million domestically, while The Case for Christ might not even open truly wide. Because of this, Smurfs: The Lost Village is the best choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Smurfs: The Lost Village.
April 1st is on Saturday, so we are starting our April Fools contests this week. Two of our winners will get movies from our prize pool, while one will be chosen at random to be the fool and receive an HD-DVD release.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win one of two previously reviewed movies, or be the winner of the Fool’s Prize.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also be a potential winner of two previously reviewed movies, or the winner of the Fool’s Prize.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win either the final of two previously reviewed movies, or be the winner of the Fool’s Prize.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!