December 4th, 2018
It’s not a bad week when it comes to the home market. The biggest release is Mission: Impossible—Fallout and while I didn’t like it as much as most critics, the Blu-ray / 4K Ultra HD Combo Packs are still worth picking up. There were also a trio of releases that were contenders for Pick of the Week, all of which were TV on DVD release: The Handmaid’s Tale: Season Two, Love, Chunibyo & Other Delusions: Take On Me, and Westworld: Season Two: The Door. In the end, it came down to a roll of the dice, with The Handmaid’s Tale coming out on top.
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September 18th, 2018
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The Predator earned top spot on the weekend box office chart with $24.63 million. However, the best new release was arguably A Simple Favor with $16.01 million, as it is the only film that will match its production budget at the domestic box office. On the other hand, White Boy Rick struggled and will likely not pay for its $30 million price-tag any time soon, while Unbroken: Path to Redemption bombed. Overall, the weekend box office was $107 million, 12% lower than last weekend. It was also down from this weekend last year, but only by 3.5%. That’s better than expected at the beginning of the month and that’s great news for 2018. Granted, its lead over 2017 went down, but it still has a 9.6% / $740 million lead with $8.50 billion compared to $7.76 billion in 2017. It would take something incredible to happen to lose this entire lead by the end of the year.
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September 11th, 2018
The Nun topped expectations with $53.81 million over the weekend. Peppermint was well back in second place with $13.42 million, which is an acceptable debut for this time of year. Crazy Rich Asians was in a close third place and overall the box office was quite strong. The total box office was $121 million, which is 23% better than last weekend. Granted, this is 26% lower than the same weekend last year. Normally a drop this severe would be troubling, but this isn’t a normal situation. Firstly, this weekend last year was the weekend It debuted and rewrote the record book. Secondly, 2018 is still ahead of 2017 by 10% or $770 million at $8.36 billion to $7.59 billion. This means 2018’s gains during the weekdays almost made up for its losses over the weekend.
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September 9th, 2018
The Nun topped expectations by a sizable margin with $53.5 million during its opening weekend. This is easily the best opening in the franchise so far and the best opening for a Warner Bros. film this year. The film also got off to a fast start internationally with $77.5 million on 15,615 screens in 60 markets. Its best markets were Mexico ($10.7 million on 3,967 screens) and Indonesia ($7.7 million on 1,216). At this point, the film is almost guaranteed a massive profit, despite is awful reviews and its mere C from CinemaScore. Even if it earns less during the rest of its run than it opened with, which is too pessimistic, it will still be a major financial success. There’s no way the franchise will end any time soon.
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September 8th, 2018
The Nun is crushing expectations with a $22.37 million opening Friday haul. I wasn’t expecting it to top $20 million on Friday, so this is great news. On the other hand, its reviews have continued to fall and are now at just 29% positive. Meanwhile, it only managed a C from CinemaScore, which is the worst in the franchise by far. (The two Conjuring movies both earned A minus, while the two Annabelle movies each earned a B score.) That said, this isn’t terrible for a horror movie and even terrible legs won’t put a damper on this debut, so Warner Bros. must be ecstatic about this result.
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September 7th, 2018
The Nun opened with $5.4 million during its previews. The previous best in the franchise was $4 million, earned by Annabelle: Creation. It’s is nearly impossible to compare the two films, as Annabelle: Creation was a summer release and its reviews were much better than The Nun’s reviews were, but even if this film has much shorter legs, it should top our $45 million prediction. It has a good shot at $50 million over the weekend.
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September 6th, 2018
It’s the weekend after Labor Day, which is historically one of the worst weekends of the year at the box office. However, that’s not the case this year, as The Nun is expected to be a major hit. In fact, it should have the best opening in the franchise so far. On the other hand, Peppermint will be happy with a second place debut. Finally, God Bless the Broken Road is opening semi-wide, but the box office lacks any real depth, so it could come close to the top five. This weekend last year was the weekend It destroyed the record book. There’s no way 2018 will win in the year-over-year comparison, but 2018 has such a large lead over 2017 that even a few embarrassing losses won’t put a serious dent into it’s advantage.
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