Who will be the Master of the Box Office?
November 14th, 2003
In addition to the two new movies are opening wide and another opening quasi-wide, last week's quasi-wide release gets a wider release this week. With all the new films, holdovers might get lost in the shuffle.
Opening in over 3100 theatre and competing in the longest title of the year competition is Master and Commander: Far Side of the World. This Napoleonic naval epic cost a reported $150 million to make, and that doesn't include P&A. With such a large investment, the film will need to be one of the highest grossing movie for star Russell Crowe, right up there with his last film A Beautiful Mind. Amazing reviews will help, (including 100% from the Cream of the Crop) and so will a $34 million opening. And with an older target audience, expect great legs from this film.
There is a lot of competition for the kids at the box office this weekend, but even in its second weekend, Elf looks like it will win over that particular demographic. The Will Farrell hit will lose less than 25% landing at $24 million and second place.
When a movie performs poorly during the mid-week it means one of two things, it has poor word of mouth or its demographic is skewed young. The Matrix Revolutions is one such film, and since Elf has held up better mid-week I think it's more like that The Matrix Revolutions has poor word of mouth than an R-rated film having a younger demographic than Elf. Look for $21 million this weekend and a dubious future. Two positive notes, it will cross the $100 million mark in just 10 day and its international run will be much, much stronger than its domestic run.
During this time of the year in 1996 Space Jam opened with $27 million. Granted, that film was helped out by the popularity of Michael Jordan. This time around in Looney Tunes: Back in Action the human co-star is Brendan Fraser, who is no stranger to kids, having stared in the live action adaptation of George of the Jungle. Reviews are on the weak side at just over 50%, but kids don't read reviews so that should matter little. One last factor, the strong sales of the Looney Tunes: Golden Collection shows Bugs and Daffy have lost none of their popularity. So look for an opening weekend just north of $20 million.
Brother Bear will again be hurt by the direct competition of a new film. Last week it was Elf, this week it's Looney Tune: Back in Action. Last weekend, Brother Bear lost just 4% of its box office; however, on a day-by-day comparison that loss was a little more than 25%. And that loss should start accelerating, down to just under $12 million this week.
Despite more than doubling its theatre count, Love Actually will again miss the top five. But will have the best week-to-week performance climbing to $10 million at the box office.
The last movie to open in more than a handful of theatres is Tupac: Resurrection. In spite of good reviews, this biopic opens in only 800 theatres and will have trouble hitting $3.0 and the top ten.
On a side note, unless it completely collapses at the box office Scary Movie 3 should get the little less than $4 million needed to cross the $100 million mark.
Submitted by: C.S.Strowbridge
Filed under: Elf, The Matrix Revolutions, Scary Movie 3, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, Brother Bear, Love Actually, Looney Tunes: Back in Action, Tupac Resurrection