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Weekend Predictions: Will the Box Office Run Out of Gas?

September 4th, 2015

The Transporter Refueled

It's Labor Day long weekend, the weakest long weekend of the year. There are two films looking to grab spots in the top five, The Transporter Refueled and A Walk in the Woods. They will have to contend with Straight Outta Compton, but more importantly, they will have to compete with last chance outdoor activities. This weekend last year, the best new release was The Identical, which is one of the biggest bombs of all time. We won't have a repeat of that this year, so hopefully fall can start on a winning note.

It should be four in a row for Straight Outta Compton. I expect the film to be knocked out of top spot on Friday and could even fall to third place, but by the time the Monday numbers are tallied it will have earned first place with about $12 million over four days. This will likely be enough to push it past the $150 million milestone.

The Transporter Refueled should open in first place on Friday, mainly because the competition is so bad. There certainly isn't a lot of pre-release buzz that could boost the box office numbers. Worse still, the film is earning reviews that are just 18% positive, so it will probably fall fast as the weekend progresses. There's almost no chance the movie will become the fastest opening film in the franchise. In fact, it will likely become the worst with just $9 million from Friday through Sunday. Add in Monday and it will earn just over $11 million. That's not enough to be considered a hit.

A Walk in the Woods is opening wider than expected, although it is still not opening truly wide. Additionally, it is opening with reviews that are 49% positive. This is particularly bad, because its target audience is more likely to read and trust reviews, so mixed reviews will hurt its box office numbers more than bad reviews would hurt an action film's financial prospects. It did earn first place on Wednesday, with a very similar opening to No Escape. That film earned $8.11 million over the three day weekend. I think the holidays will help A Walk in the Woods do a little bit better than that, while Monday will boost its total opening to $11 million over four days.

War Room should land in fourth place with just over $9 million over four days, aided by a particularly strong Sunday. It will easily break even at this rate.

Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation will be right behind with just under $9 million. Its long legs are making $200 million a possibility. I didn't think that would be true just a couple of weeks ago.


Filed under: Weekend Preview, A Walk in the Woods, Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation, No Escape, Straight Outta Compton, The Transporter Refueled, War Room, Transporter