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Weekend Predictions: Will the New Releases have Perfect Openings?

September 10th, 2015

The Perfect Guy

There are two and a half wide releases coming out this week, led by The Perfect Guy. I think it will earn first place at the box office, but it isn't a sure thing. Up next is The Visit, which is the latest from M. Night Shyamalan. It has been a while since he had real drawing power at the box office. Finally there's 90 Minutes in Heaven, which is not expected to open truly wide, but wide enough to get into the top ten. This weekend last year was led by No Good Deed, which opened with $24.25 million. I don't think any new release will match that this year. There's a chance none of them will match Dolphin Tale 2. I'm cautiously optimistic that 2015 won't lose by a substantial amount, but if either of the two truly wide releases bomb, then the box office will be in real trouble.

The Perfect Guy is a thriller with an African-American target audience. This puts it in the same category as No Good Deed, which opened this weekend last year. That film earned reviews that were simply awful. However, it still managed to earn enough during its opening weekend to pay for its entire production budget. The Perfect Guy still has no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, which is a really bad sign. Additionally, it is only playing in about 2,200 theaters. That said, the competition isn't good and these films have succeeded in the past. I'm going with first place with $18 million.

M. Night Shyamalan hasn't had a critical success since Signs. That film came out more than a decade ago, so this is a monstrous slump. His slump at the box office is nearly as long. The Visit could break his slump with critics, as its reviews are currently 62%. That might not last as more reviews trickle in. Additionally, the buzz isn't as strong as its reviews currently are, so its box office chances are relatively soft. Fortunately, the film only cost $5 million to make, and it should earn $15 million during its opening weekend. That will be enough to cover its production budget. Its P&A budget is likely in the $20 million range, but even so, it will likely break even before the home market.

War Room held on much better than expected last weekend and I think this strength will continue this weekend. Look for $6 million over the next three days for a total of $37 million after 17 days of release.

A Walk in the Woods is on pace to earn just under $5 million this weekend. It is hardly a major hit, but it also didn't have a major budget, so perhaps it will break even early in its home market run.

Straight Outta Compton should be right behind with just over $4 million. It is already a monster hit, especially compared to its relatively moderate budget.

The final new release of the week is 90 Minutes in Heaven, a faith-based film earning mixed reviews. These films are really unpredictable at the box office, so it has a real shot at the top five. However, there is another faith-based film already in theaters and the direct competition could leave this film out of the top ten. I'm going with just under $4 million, but this is the film I'm least sure about.

Filed under: Weekend Preview, A Walk in the Woods, The Visit, Straight Outta Compton, War Room, The Perfect Guy, 90 Minutes in Heaven, M. Night Shyamalan