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Friday Estimates: Nature vs. Nurture

March 5th, 2016

Zootopia

Zootopia started its run with $19.47 million on Friday. This tops The Lorax's opening by almost exactly $2 million. The film’s reviews remain Oscar-worthy, and its CinemaScore is an A (A+ among its target demographic). This should result in a great internal multiplier, meaning a $75 million weekend is within reach, and becoming the Biggest March Opening for an animated film seems like a lock.

London Has Fallen’s opening day was significantly below the opening day of Olympus Has Fallen at $7.59 million vs. $10.06 million. The reviews took a real hit this time around, but its CinemaScore remained strong, with the film earning an A-. If it has the same internal multiplier, then it will earn between $22 million and $23 million. I think the lower end is most likely. Worse still, this is a 25% drop-off at the box office despite a 50% increase in the film’s production budget. I don’t see how this film breaks even, unless it is a surprise hit internationally.

The final wide release of the week was Whiskey Tango Foxtrot, which earned fourth the place with $2.43 million. The reviews are good, but not great, as is its CinemaScore, which sits at a B. On the positive side, its target demographic will likely help its internal multiplier and it could make more over the weekend than Our Brand is Crisis made in total. However, the results of those two movies does indicate that the market for political comedies is really weak at the moment.

By the time you read this, Deadpool will have likely have hit $300 million, on its 23rd day of release. It’ll be the 21st-fastest film to that landmark. It also picks up one obscure record: this is the earliest in the year that a film has reached $300 million, excluding films released the previous year. The Hunger Games was the previous holder of that record, having hit $300 million on April 6, 2012.

- Friday Box Office

- Zootopia comparisons
- London Has Fallen comparisons
- Whiskey Tango Foxtrot comparisons

Filed under: Friday Estimates