Follow us on

Weekend Predictions: Can Wall be Great? Does Fist have any Fight?

February 16th, 2017

The Great Wall

There are three wide releases coming out this week, but none of them are expected to challenge for top spot. Although, there could be an interesting race between the two biggest releases, Fist Fight and The Great Wall. Sadly, this is because both have seen their box office potential fall over the past week. A Cure for Wellness never really had much box office potential. This will leave The Lego Batman Movie with an easy win over the Presidents’ Day long weekend, while we should have five films earning more than $10 million over the three-day portion of the weekend. This weekend last year, there were also three wide releases that struggled at the box office leaving Deadpool with an easy win. The Lego Batman Movie won’t match Deadpool at the top, but 2017 has much better depth, so that should help keep the year-over-year race close.

The Lego Batman Movie missed expectations last weekend, but it should do really well this weekend. Not only is it a holiday, but the film’s good and its A minus from CinemaScore will result in strong word-of-mouth. Additionally, none of the new releases share a lot of the film’s target audience. Look for just over $33 million over the three day weekend and just under $42 million over the four-day weekend. This will be more than enough to crack $100 million over the weekend, which is more than it cost to make.

Fifty Shades Darker will likely have the worst decline in the top five plummeting more than 60% over the three-day weekend. This is partially due to its reviews, but mainly due to the Fangirl effect. The holiday will help mitigate its decline, but it is still going to tumble to $25 million over the four-day weekend. This won’t be enough to get to to $100 million by Monday, but it will be close enough that it will hit the century mark sooner rather than later.

John Wick: Chapter Two beat expectations last weekend and its reviews suggest good legs, but The Great Wall and this film share a pretty similar target demographic. The film might crack $20 million over the four-day weekend, but I think it will fall just shy of that mark.

The Great Wall is one of the biggest Chinese films ever made. It is also one of the most important, as its China’s first big attempt to create a Hollywood blockbuster aimed at Western audiences as much as Chinese audiences. The execution has been mixed, to be polite. The buzz has also been quieter than anticipated, but there is room for a surprise. Perhaps the film will do better than expected and compete for second place with close to $25 million over four days. I think fourth place with just under $19 million is more likely, but I remain cautiously optimistic.

Fist Fight is the only comedy playing in wide release, so that will help its box office chances. Additionally, both Ice Cube and Charlie Day have had some solid comedy hits recently, so it isn’t impossible for the film to be a solid midlevel hit. Unfortunately, its reviews are not going to help. The buzz wasn’t growing as loud as I would have liked, so the weak reviews are going to keep the film in fifth place with $18 million over the four-day weekend.

A Cure for Wellness is the final release of the week. It is the smallest in terms of buzz. It is earning the best reviews of the week, but its Tomatometer Score is just a mere 41% positive. I’ve heard more than a few critics compare it to Crimson Peak, at least in terms of style. However, nearly all critics are complaining that it has more style than substance. That’s not going to help it at the box office. Furthermore, there have been several horror / thrillers released in 2017 so far, so the market is either at saturation, or close to it. The film could miss the Mendoza Line over the three-day weekend, but between $7 million and $8 million over the four-day weekend is more likely.

- The Great Wall Comparisons
- Fist Fight Comparisons
- A Cure for Wellness Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, A Cure for Wellness, The Lego Batman Movie, The Great Wall, Fifty Shades Darker, John Wick: Chapter Two, Fist Fight, Ice Cube, Charlie Day