Weekend Predictions: Super Bowl Looks to Bowl Over the Competition

January 31, 2019

Miss Bala

It’s Super Bowl weekend, which is historically one of the worst weekends all year long and it doesn’t look like this year will be an exception. Miss Bala is the only true wide release of the week, while They Shall Not Grow Old is expanding wide enough that it could grab a spot in the top five. Glass should remain in top spot, likely with less than $10 million. It’s not going to be a good weekend at the box office. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, Winchester opened with just over $9 million and two holdovers earned $10 million. 2019 is going to lose in the year-over-year comparison, but because both weekends were so soft, the gap shouldn’t be too large.

Glass is looking to complete the threepeat and should get there with $9 million. Neither of the new releases presents direct competition for this film, but there’s a rather large crossover audience between this film and the Super Bowl, so that could hurt the film’s legs. That said, even if the film falls to $8 million, it is still a lock to get to $100 million domestically.

The Upside should be right behind with $8 million over the weekend. It too is on pace for $100 million domestically.

Miss Bala is a remake starring Gina Rodriguez. The critics are praising her performance and saying she has what it takes to be an action star. However, they are not praising much else about the movie. Additionally, the film does share a large segment of its target audience with the Super Bowl, so I’m not bullish about its chances at the box office. Perhaps it will be a surprise hit matching Winchester’s opening from last year and earn first place. I fear third place with $7 million is far more likely.

Fourth place is a real mess with five films all aiming for about $4 million. This includes long time holdovers: Aquaman and Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse, as well as films that are expanding: They Shall Not Grow Old and Green Book. The final film in this mix is last week’s disappointment, The Kid Who Would Be King. It is a real coin toss as to which film will place where. In fact, I think these five films will be changing positions on the daily chart throughout the weekend. Aquaman probably has the best shot at fourth place, but They Shall Not Grow Old could be a surprise hit.

- Miss Bala Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Aquaman, Glass, The Kid Who Would Be King, The Upside, Miss Bala, Green Book, They Shall Not Grow Old, Gina Rodriguez