Weekend Predictions: Will Captain Marvel Give the New Releases Room to Breathe?

March 15, 2019

Five Feet Apart

Captain Marvel will undoubetedly dominate the box office again this weekend with some thinking it will avoid a 50% drop-off. I think that is overly optimistic, but there are some good signs. This includes a lack of top-notch new releases. Wonder Park is the biggest new release, at least in terms of theater count, but it also has the worst reviews of the three wide releases. Five Feet Apart has better reviews, but they can best be described as mixed. Meanwhile, Captive State still has barely any reviews and its buzz is so quiet that it might not top the Mendoza Line. Finally, some sources have Nancy Drew and the Hidden Staircase opening wide, but that isn’t happening. That’s too bad, because if it were opening wide, it would have the best reviews of the weekend. This weekend last year, Black Panther completed its month at the top of the chart, while Tomb Raider was the best new releases. Those two films earned almost exactly $50 million combined, which Captain Marvel will top by itself, leading 2019 to the victory in the year-over-year comparison.

Captain Marvel opened with $153.43 million last weekend. How well it holds up this weekend will determine whether the film is merely a monster hit or something special. For example, Black Panther fell just 45% during its second weekend of release and it became a cultural event. On the other extreme, Batman v Superman plummeted 69% during its second weekend of release and it spelled the end of the grimdark version of the D.C.E.U. Captain Marvel will finish somewhere in-between. A sophomore stint drop-off of at least 50% is practically guaranteed, while I don’t think it will fall more than 60%, but it will finish on the low end of expectations. It’s a prequel and an origin story, so it doesn’t have as much replay value as Black Panther, for example. I’m going with a prediction of $65 million, which would lift its running tally past $250 million early on Sunday morning, putting it ahead of seven previous MCU releases.

Wonder Park and Five Feet Apart should be in a tight race for second place. In fact, there’s an excellent chance Five Feet Apart will earn second place on Friday before being overtaken by Wonder Park on Saturday and being forced into third place for the weekend. Wonder Park’s reviews are hardly an asset, but it is a minor miracle that the film’s this good, as it had a troubled production. (Its director was fired for sexual harassment.) Furthermore, the film cost $100 million to make and it is expected to open with between $10 million and $12 million over the weekend. Even if it opens on the high end of that range, and I think it will, it will still be a box office flop.

Meanwhile, Five Feet Apart only cost $7 million to make and it is widely expected to top that over its opening weekend. Its reviews are only mixed, but had this film been released during the peak of the Young Adult adaptation buzz, then it could have been a solid midlevel hit. As it is, it will likely barely crack $10 million during its opening weekend.

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World should be close behind with just under $10 million. It should top its $129 million budget in the middle of the weekend and it is on pace to break even early in its home market run.

Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral will round out the top five with $7 million. It is doing well compared to the Madea franchise average and should break even early in its home market run as well.

Captive State doesn’t have many reviews, but the ones it has are in the overall positive range. Sadly, that likely won’t be enough, as the buzz is really quiet. The film could come close to fifth place with just over $6 million, but it could also open with less than half of that. I think it will avoid the Mendoza Line, barely, with $5 million.

- Wonder Park Comparisons
- Five Feet Apart Comparisons
- Captive State Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Captain Marvel, Wonder Park, Captive State, Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral, Five Feet Apart, Nancy Drew and the Hidden Staircase, Madea, Marvel Cinematic Universe, DC Extended Universe