Weekend Predictions: Halloween Scares Away Wide Releases

October 25, 2019

Black and Blue

The final weekend before Halloween is rarely a good time to release a film and the paltry selection of new releases on this list shows this year will be no different. The Current War: Director’s Cut is the only film earning good reviews, but it is opening in the fewest theaters by far. Countdown has the worst reviews, but it is a horror film opening just before Halloween, so its opening weekend could be okay. Black and Blue is in the middle in terms of reviews, theater count, and box office chances. Sadly, it is very likely all three films will open below $10 million over the weekend. There’s a slim chance none of them open in the top five. By comparison, this weekend last year saw only one wide release, Hunter Killer, which bombed. This year will be much better in terms of new releases, but none of the holdovers will match Halloween on top. 2019 does have much better depth, so I think we will get a small win in the year-over-year comparison.

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil should be in a tight race for first place, so tight in fact that it likely won’t start out on first place on Friday. There are some reasons to be optimistic, including its A-rating from CinemaScore and its Halloween-friendly nature. That said, its reviews are mixed, so it won’t hold on as well as a lot of family films do. It should still avoid a 50% drop-off, but it will be close with just under $19 million.

Joker will be next with just over $18 million. The film is about to become the highest-grossing R-rated film of all time, which means we should be seeing more big-budget R-rated films in the future. I’m still holding out hope for Guillermo del Toro’s adaptation of At the Mountains of Madness.

Zombieland: Double Tap is a sequel and a horror film, neither of which suggest long legs. Likewise, its reviews are merely good, while it struggled with just a B plus from CinemaScore. That said, it is Halloween related, so it has a small shot at avoiding a 50% decline. I don’t think it will do that well, but it should earn close to $13 million over the weekend, enough for a solid third place ranking.

The Addams Family should be close behind; in fact, I think it will top Zombieland: Double Tap on Saturday, perhaps even on Sunday. Look for a weekend haul of just over $12 million and a running tally of close to $75 million.

There should be a close race for fifth place between Countdown and Black and Blue. The latter has better reviews, but the former is opening in more theaters. Additionally, Countdown is a horror film and with Halloween less than a week away, it should get a bounce at the box office as a result. Look for a close race with Countdown earning just under $8 million and Black and Blue earning just over $7 million.

This gets us to The Current War: Director’s Cut. This film is earning the best reviews of the three new releases on this week’s list, but those reviews are barely in the overall positive level, so they are not a major selling point. Additionally, it is only playing in 1,022 theaters, which is by far the lowest theater count of these three films. Finally, it has some pretty bad buzz and I don’t think the news reviews will completely get rid of that. On the low end, this film could open barely above the Mendoza Line. On the high end, it could compete for sixth place with just over $6 million. I’m going with just under $5 million, which is not a terrible start, given the mess this film had to deal with.

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Zombieland: Double Tap, The Current War: Director’s Cut, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, The Addams Family, Black and Blue, Joker, Countdown, Guillermo del Toro