November 1st, 2018
October continued 2018’s phenomenal box office run, for the most part. There were a couple of films that missed expectations by $10 million or more, but on the other hand, Vemon and Halloween were smash hits and are now the first and second biggest October debuts of all time. Furthermore, 2018’s lead over 2017 is, as I’m writing this, just shy of $1 billion and if 2018 can maintain this lead, it will be one of the biggest year-over-year increases of all time. It won’t. The fun times end now. Why is that? Last November was amazing. There were only eight wide releases, but six of them earned more than $100 million. Three of those hit $200 million, including Thor: Ragnarok, which earned over $300 million. This year, there are a lot more movies opening in November, but it is a case of quantity over quality. No movie is expected to come close to $300 million and it would take a bit of luck just to have five $100 million hits. The film I’m looking forward to the most is Ralph Breaks the Internet, while it, Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch, and Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald are all aiming for $200 million this month. Fortunately, even if 2018 is behind 2017’s pace by around $300 million, 2018 has built up such a large lead that it should still go into December with an insurmountable lead at the box office.
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June 5th, 2015
In another improvement to our news this week, the Limited Releases column is expanding to cover both limited and VOD releases. I know what you are thinking. You are thinking, “aren't you already talking about VOD on the Home Market Releases column?” Yes. However, those are for VOD releases for films that already played in theaters some time ago. This column will include films that debut on VOD either before, or simultaneously with, their theatrical release. We think this it an important change, as too often the Limited Release column was “Limited Releases Playing in New York City and Possibly Los Angeles.” For people in most of the rest of the country, there were no films on the list playing anywhere near them. This week, there are at least a few films worth checking out, including We Are Still Here, which is playing on VOD and Love and Mercy and Testament of Youth, which are theatrical-only releases that both have a shot at mainstream success.
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February 12th, 2015
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at the two supporting actor categories, finishing with Best Supporting Actor. Like the Best Supporting Actress category, Best Supporting Actor isn't even close and one of the five nominees is absolutely running away with things.
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January 17th, 2015
The Oscar nominations were announced early in the morning, when all sensible people were asleep. There were some surprises, as well as some results that would have been surprises had it not been for the previous Awards Season nominations. Seventeen films earned two or more nods, led by Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel, both of which picked up nine nominations, while The Imitation Game was right behind with eight.
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December 11th, 2014
The Golden Globes nominations were announced this morning, at three in the morning, because the people at Golden Globes are under the delusion that news announced at 3:00 a.m. is somehow more important if it is announced before anyone is awake. As for the actual nominations, like with the Independent Spirit Awards and the SAG nominations, Birdman led the way. It earned seven nominations, while Boyhood and The Imitation Game tied for second with five apiece. Starting to notice a pattern here? This could be a really dull Awards Season with very few surprises. On the other hand, predictable means less work for me. Plus, predictable probably means the Awards Season voters are making the right choices, as surprises usually mean someone made the wrong choice.
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December 10th, 2014
The Screen Actors Guild nominations were announced Wednesday morning. Are there surprises worth mentioning? Is the Oscar picture beginning to take shape? Like with the Independent Spirit Awards, Birdman led the way this time earning four nominations from six categories, while Boyhood, The Imitation Game, and The Theory of Everything had three nods each.
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September 30th, 2014
September is over and while it got off to a bad start, a really, really, truly terrible start, it actually ended on a bit of a strong note. Granted, no film has yet to reach $100 million, but The Maze Runner and The Equalizer both could get there in the end. As for October, we might go another month without a $100 million hit. There are a couple of films that have the potential to reach the century mark, Gone Girl and Fury. Hopefully they will get there, but given the recent box office woes, it is probably best to keep expectations low. Last October, there were two films that earned more than $100 million. Bad Grandpa just made it passed that mark. On the other hand, Gravity was a monster hit earning nearly $275 million. It you compare its run to this year's batch of films, it only ranks behind Guardians of the Galaxy. ... There's no way any film opening this month is going to match that. ... There no way the top two films will match that. ... The top three films might not match that. ... 2014 is going to get crushed in the year-over-year comparison and by the end of the month, it will be safe to say its chances of ever catching up to 2013 will be over. It is going to be a depressing month.
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July 14th, 2014
There is actually a $100 million hit on this week's list of new releases, which puts it miles ahead of most of recent weeks. Unfortunately, that new release is Rio 2, which isn't terrible, but it certainly isn't Pick of the Week material either. Worse still, there is practically no depth this week and almost none of the new DVDs / Blu-rays are Pick of the Week contenders. Fortunately, "Weird Al" Yankovic comes to the rescue with Mandatory Fun, which is a CD, which I normally don't talk about. As far as DVDs and Blu-rays are concerned, Orphan Black: Season 2 on Blu-ray is clearly the best.
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May 16th, 2014
There are a number of films on this week's list that could find audience in theaters, including Ai Weiwei: The Fake Case, Chinese Puzzle, The Discoverers, Horses of God, etc. However, if I were to pick just one, it would be The Immigrant. It has amazing reviews and strong buzz.
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May 5th, 2013
During the holiday season of 2011, Tom Cruise starred in Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol. I thought it was arguably the best action movie of the year and it became the stars biggest hit globally and his best domestic hit in a decade (not counting a cameo in Goldmember). A year later, Jack Reacher opened with barely a fraction of the buzz. I was one of the most Bullish analysts and I was only predicting $75 million. The film did pull in $80 million domestically, which is better than expected, but nothing compared to MI:IV. Is it really that much weaker? Or did it struggle in comparison, because it wasn't part of a popular franchise.
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December 1st, 2012
November was a strong month and left 2012 with a very easy path to a new all time record. There was only one major miss the entire month, Rise of the Guardians, while The Silver Linings Playbook was pulled from wide release at the last minute, so it is a little hard to judge its box office performance. On the positive side, Skyfall might top original expectations by $100 million. All this December has to do is maintain pace with last December to ensure 2012 sets the new record. I would like to say that will be easy to do, but I really don't know. Last year, there was only one $200 million hit, Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol, plus a few others that reached $100 million, so the bar isn't set too high. This year, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey is expected to at least come close to $300 million. Some think it will earn more than $400 million. However, it could also be the last film to make $100 million till February. December is normally a very good month to release a film, but the release schedule is so messed up that it makes it very hard to predict what will happen. There appears to be just ten films opening truly wide this month (I'm getting mixed signals on a few of them). That's a really light schedule for a month and a light schedule tends to help maximize the box office potential for individual films. However, eight of these films open wide within a seven-day period. That's insane. There's no way all of those films will find an audience and there's a chance that due to the competition, none of them will. Let's hope the situation isn't as bad as that, but there are some serious reasons to be concerned for most new releases coming out this month.
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