2018 Preview: October

October 1, 2018

First Man

September turned out to be a solid month. The Nun beat expectations to become a $100 million hit, while there were also several midlevel hits in the mix. Granted, it lost ground when compared to last September, but last September broke records, and this September held on better than expected. Hopefully this means October will be able to continue 2018’s winning ways. There are several potential $100 million hits, starting with Venom and A Star is Born, which open the first weekend. Meanwhile, both First Man and Halloween could break the century mark later in the month. By comparison, last October, no movie topped $100 million, with Blade Runner 2049 coming the closest. 2018 should extend its lead over 2017 during the full month, potentially by a significant margin.

Weekend of October 5th, 2018

A Star is Born

Many, many people think October will get off to an explosive start with Venom becoming Sony’s biggest release of 2018. I just don’t see it. In fact, I think A Star is Born will be the biggest hit of the week, especially if its reviews translate into Awards Season buzz. This weekend last year, Blade Runner 2049 opened with $32.75 million. I think both new releases this year will top that, leading 2018 to an easy win in the year-over-year competition.

A Star is Born

A Star is Born
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: AStarIsBornMovie.com
Distributor: Warner Bros.
Release Date: October 5th, 2018
MPAA Rating: R for language throughout, some sexuality/nudity and substance abuse.
Source: Remake
Genre: Drama
Keywords: Remake, Singers, Film Actor, Addiction, Big Break, Movie Business, Music Industry, Musicians, Actors Making Their Directorial Debut, Directing Yourself, Screenplay Written By the Star
Directed By: Bradley Cooper
Written By: Will Fetters, Bradley Cooper, Eric Roth, Irene Mecchi, Stephen J. Rivele, Christopher Wilkinson, William A. Wellman
Starring: Bradley Cooper, Lady Gaga
Production Budget: Reported at $36 million
Box Office Potential: $135 million

This is the fourth time this film has been made. The original is so old that it is in public domain. This version of A Star is Born is generating a lot of buzz for a number of reasons. Firstly, it is Bradley Cooper’s directorial debut and it’s Lady Gaga’s first lead performance in a movie. Fans of both entertainers will be excited to see this film as a result. Secondly, its reviews are good enough that it could earn some Awards Season buzz. Even if that fails to materialize, I think it will easily cross $100 million domestically, becoming Warner Bros.’ six billionth film released in 2018 to get to that milestone. Okay, that’s a slight exaggeration, but after a really slow start, they’ve put together a really deep year when it comes to hits. If it does become a major Awards Season contender, it will be too late to boost its box office numbers, but it will still help drive DVD / Blu-ray sales.

Venom

Venom
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: Venom.movie
Distributor: Sony Pictures
Release Date: October 5th, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for intense sequences of sci-fi violence and action, and for language.
Source: Spin-Off
Genre: Action
Keywords: Parasite, Investigative Journalist, Marvel Comics, Super Villains
Directed By: Ruben Fleischer
Written By: Scott Rosenberg, Jeff Pinkner, Kelly Marcel, Will Beall, David Michelinie, Todd McFarlane
Starring: Tom Hardy
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $100 million
Box Office Potential: $105 million

There are many people who think this film will be the biggest hit of the month, but I just don’t see it. Maybe I hang out in a weird part of the Internet, but the buzz I’m hearing is really negative. Venom is a good character, if handled well. However, Venom is also a character that is easily misused and that looks like the case here. Furthermore, the trailers haven’t helped the film’s case. The first one didn’t show any Venom and made people wonder why they even released it. The more recent one... “Turd in the wind.” Why? No writer should have written that line. No director should have filmed it. No editor should have kept it in the final film. So how did it end up in the trailer? Finally, despite being a body horror movie, it was recut at the last minute to be PG-13, which will turn off the film’s hardcore target audience. I still think it will be a $100 million hit, barely, but it won’t be a monster hit.

Weekend of October 12th, 2018

First Man

First Man leads the way during the second weekend of October. It is a clear Oscar-bait movie, as biopics like this tend to be catnip for Oscar voters. Its reviews could be enough to earn some prestige nominations, while it will be a favorite to pick up several technical nominations. Goosebumps: Haunted Halloween is a follow-up to Goosebumps, a film that was a solid hit, but not a runaway success. I suspect this one will the the same. Bad Times at the El Royale is the film I’m most interested in seeing, but I fear I’m in the minority here. This weekend last year, Happy Death Day was a surprise hit, but not a monster one. I really hope at least one of the new releases opens faster, while it is possible two of them will.

Bad Times at the El Royale

Bad Times at the El Royale
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: FoxMovies.com/Movies/Bad-Times-at-the-El-Royale
Distributor: 20th Century Fox
Release Date: October 12th, 2018
MPAA Rating:
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Thriller/Suspense
Keywords: One Night, Redemption, Addiction, Narcotics, Heist, False Identity, Motel, 1960s, California, Nevada, Ensemble, Film Noir, Crime Thriller
Directed By: Drew Goddard
Written By: Drew Goddard
Starring: Jeff Bridges, Cynthia Erivo, Dakota Johnson, Jon Hamm, Cailee Spaeny, Lewis James Pullman, Chris Hemsworth
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $20 million to $30 million
Box Office Potential: $25 million

A group of seven strangers at a motel discover there’s more going on there than any of them know. It’s a Neo Noir film with a talented writer / director and an amazing cast. I really want this to be a massive hit. However, it is by far the smallest release coming out this week and I really fear it will be lost in the crowd. It will need good reviews to thrive against the competition. At the moment, its Tomatometer Score is 73% positive, which is good, but I don’t know if it is good enough to get noticed by a wider audience.

First Man

First Man
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: FirstMan.com/
Distributor: Universal
Release Date: October 12th, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for some thematic content involving peril, and brief strong language.
Source: Based on Factual Book/Article
Genre: Drama
Keywords: 1960s, Space Program, Astronaut, Astrophysics, Biography
Directed By: Damien Chazelle
Written By: Josh Singer, James R. Hansen
Starring: Ryan Gosling
Production Budget: Reported at $60 million
Box Office Potential: $115 million

This film looks at the Apollo space program from 1961 through 1969 when the first men landed on the moon. ... I really don’t like the fact that it is called First Man, because getting to the moon was a team effort. For that matter, it should be human, as this was a team effort, with a lot of women working behind the scenes and there were even several that trained as astronauts. ... Hey Hollywood, make that movie. Films like this tend to do well during Awards season, especially at the Oscars with all of the technical categories. Even if the film isn’t good enough to earn a Best Picture nomination, it could earn a lot of nods for Best Sound Mixing, Best Production Design, etc. Its reviews are right on the edge between great and award-worthy and on the high end, I think it could match Hidden Figures, but that’s asking a lot. I do think it will open in first place and earn $100 million domestically.

Goosebumps: Haunted Halloween

Goosebumps: Haunted Halloween
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: Goosebumps.Movie
Distributor: Sony Pictures
Release Date: October 12th, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG for scary creature action and images, some thematic elements, rude humor and language.
Source: Based on Fiction Book/Short Story
Genre: Horror
Keywords: Supernatural, Circus, Creature Features, Living Toys, Sequels Without Their Original Stars, Kids Horror
Directed By: Rob Letterman
Written By: Darren Lemke, Scott Alexander, Larry Karaszewski, R.L. Stine
Starring: Jack Black, Madison Iseman, Caleel Harris, Jeremy Ray Taylor, Avery Lee Jones
Production Budget: $35 million
Box Office Potential: $70 million

The original Goosebumps cost $58 million to make and pulled in $158 million at the global box office. A sequel seems like the smart choice. Interestingly, the production budget for Goosebumps: Haunted Halloween is reportedly just $35 million, so even if the film fails to earn half as much at the box office, it could still break even. I’m a little more bullish than most, but with that in mind, I think the film has a real shot at outperforming The House with a Clock in its Walls. The name recognition and the better release date should help. Or, the two films coming out so close together could mean the market is saturated and this one will struggle.

Weekend of October 19th, 2018

Halloween

There’s only one wide release this week, Halloween, which should get a major boost from the lack of competition and the proximity to Halloween itself. The Hate U Give is scheduled to expand wide this week, but I’m not 100% convinced that will happen. That said, its reviews and buzz strongly suggest it will earn some measure of mainstream success, even if it doesn’t expand truly wide. This weekend last year, Boo 2! earned first place with $21.23 million, while Geostorm was the only other film over $10 million at $13.71 million. Halloween should open with more than the combined openings of those two films, giving 2018 the win in the year-over-year comparison.

Halloween

Halloween
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: HalloweenMovie.com
Distributor: Universal
Release Date: October 19th, 2018
MPAA Rating: R for horror violence and bloody images, language, brief drug use and nudity.
Source: Remake
Genre: Horror
Keywords: Serial Killer, Supernatural, Teenage Slasher, Escape, Mental Hospital
Directed By: David Gordon Green
Written By: David Gordon Green, Danny McBride, John Carpenter, Debra Hill
Starring: Jamie Lee Curtis, Nick Castle
Production Budget: Reported at $10 million
Box Office Potential: $90 million

This Halloween is the eleventh film in the franchise and it is only the second film in the franchise to earn good reviews. Granted, the first film does have better reviews, but it is widely considered a classic, so not living up to the original film isn’t a failing on this film’s part. Interestingly, while the film was initially talked about as a remake, it is in fact a direct sequel to the first movie and the film is ignoring all of the previous sequels. This has gotten a lot of fans of the original movie very excited, with some thinking it could earn well over $100 million. I’m not that bullish, but I wouldn’t be too surprised if it cracked the century mark.

The Hate U Give

The Hate U Give
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: FoxMovies.com/Movies/The-Hate-U-Give
Distributor: 20th Century Fox
Release Date: October 5th, 2018 (Limited Release)
Release Date: October 19th, 2018 (Expands Wide)
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for mature thematic elements, some violent content, drug material and language.
Source: Based on Fiction Book/Short Story
Genre: Drama
Keywords: Police Shooting, Prep School, Race Relations, Death of a Best Friend, Narcotics, Political Activist, Political Protest, Riots, Class Warfare, Gangs, Life on the Outside
Directed By: George Tillman, Jr
Written By: Tina Mabry, Audrey Wells, Angie Thomas
Starring: Amandla Stenberg
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $10 million to $20 million
Box Office Potential: $25 million

Amandla Stenberg stars as a 16-year old girl who lives in a poor, black neighborhood, but goes to school in a rich, white neighborhood. When her best friend from her neighborhood is killed by a cop in a routine traffic stop, she has to decide if she wants to come forward as a witness.

The film is earning perfect reviews so far, but it was moved from an October 19th wide release to an October 5th limited release with a planned October 19th wide expansion. Worse still, this move was made less than a month before the new release date. That might be a mistake, as it is often very difficult for a limited release to expand truly wide and the short notice could make promoting the film’s new release schedule more difficult.

Last minute update: The first negative review has shown up, but its Tomatometer Score is still 96% positive.

Weekend of October 26th, 2018

Hunter Killer

There is only one truly wide release the final week of the month, Hunter Killer. This political thriller is still expected to struggle at the box office, despite the lack of competition. Also coming out this week is Johnny English Strikes Again; however, the previous installment in the franchise didn’t open truly wide and finished with less than $10 million. I think this one will do the same, so we aren’t going to talk about it more here. Finally, Indivisible is the latest faith-based film coming out this year. The subgenre is in such a major slump that I wouldn’t be surprised if this film doesn’t even open semi-wide. This weekend last year, Jigsaw failed to restart the Saw franchise, opening with just $16.64 million. This is still better than Hunter Killer will open with, but 2018 might have enough depth to come out with a win.

Hunter Killer

Hunter Killer
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: Facebook.com/HunterKillerMovie
Distributor: Lionsgate
Release Date: October 26th, 2018
MPAA Rating: R for violence and some language.
Source: Based on Fiction Book/Short Story
Genre: Thriller/Suspense
Keywords: Submarine, Navy Seals, Russia, Betrayal, Kidnap, Political, Rescue, Military Coup
Directed By: Donovan Marsh
Written By: Arne Schmidt, Jamie Moss, Don Keith, George Wallace
Starring: Gerard Butler, Gary Oldman
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $30 million to $40 million
Box Office Potential: $25 million

Gerard Butler plays the captain of an American submarine that has to go into Russian waters to rescue the president after he is kidnapped in a coup. This film’s buzz is so quiet that it will likely open with just under $10 million, which is awful for a movie that has its opening weekend to itself. Granted, this is the weekend before Halloween, which is not a good time of year to release a film, but this is still not what Lionsgate was hoping for.

Filed under: Monthly Preview, Venom, Hunter Killer, Halloween, A Star is Born, Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween, First Man, Bad Times at the El Royale, The Hate U Give, Johnny English Strikes Again, Indivisible, Halloween, Saw, Johnny English, Gary Oldman, Jack Black, Jeff Bridges, Gerard Butler, John Carpenter, Bradley Cooper, Jamie Lee Curtis, Ruben Fleischer, Ryan Gosling, David Gordon Green, Jon Hamm, Tom Hardy, Chris Hemsworth, Rob Letterman, Danny McBride, George Wallace, Damien Chazelle, George Tillman, Jr, Eric Roth, Irene Mecchi, Darren Lemke, Dakota Johnson, Drew Goddard, Amandla Stenberg, Will Fetters, Lady Gaga, Scott Rosenberg, Will Beall, Stephen J. Rivele, Christopher Wilkinson, Nick Castle, Josh Singer, Kelly Marcel, Scott Alexander, Larry Karaszewski, Debra Hill, Audrey Wells, Jeff Pinkner, Caleel Harris, Jamie Moss, James R. Hansen, Donovan Marsh, R.L. Stine, Avery Lee Jones, , William A. Wellman, Lewis James Pullman, Jeremy Ray Taylor, Cynthia Erivo, Cailee Spaeny, Madison Iseman, Tina Mabry, David Michelinie, Todd McFarlane, Don Keith, Angie Thomas