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Weekend Predictions: Will we have Stellar New Releases?

November 6th, 2014

Nightcrawler poster

November begins with a powerful one-two punch. Both Interstellar and Big Hero 6 are expected to open with more than $50 million. On the high end, they could both clear $60 million. Interstellar was expected to win by a sizable margin, but its Wednesday IMAX opening was not quite as strong as expected, so it could be a closer than expected weekend. Those two films should easily pull in more than $100 million over the weekend, but unfortunately the rest of the box office will be well back. This weekend last year was similarly top-heavy with Thor: The Dark World earning $85.74 million, which was more than the rest of the box office combined. It looks like the year-over-year competition could be quite close, but I have to give 2014 the edge.

Interstellar is the latest film by Christopher Nolan and as such, it has been earning impressive buzz for a long time. Unfortunately, its reviews are, while good, not as good as many were expecting. Don't get me wrong, 72% positive is still good for a wide release, but it isn't stellar. Likewise, the film opened in 249 IMAX theaters on Wednesday earning $1.35 million, which is good, but not amazing. Earlier in the week, I thought the film might open with $70 million, but just over $60 million seems more likely now. I'm going with $62 million.

Big Hero 6 is also aiming for $60 million, more or less. There are a number of positives, including a winning streak by the Disney's animation studio. It is based on a Marvel Comic and I don't need to tell you how well those films have been doing. Finally, the reviews are outstanding and it is one of the best wide releases of the fall so far. On the downside, it is a family film, so it likely won't have a monster opening, but will have better than average legs. Look for just under $60 million over the weekend, let's say $58 million. It should win the Saturday daily box office and in the end earn more than Interstellar.

The rest of the top five will be way back from these two, so far back that there's little to say in comparison. Nightcrawler, Fury, and Gone Girl should all earn between $5 million and $6 million over the weekend, while there will be a another four or five films earning between $5 million and $4 million over the weekend.


Filed under: Weekend Preview, Interstellar, Fury, Big Hero 6, Gone Girl, Nightcrawler, Christopher Nolan