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Weekend Predictions: Will Pyramid Scheme Its Way to the Top (Five)

December 5th, 2014

The Pyramid poster

It's the weekend after Thanksgiving, one of the worst weekends of the year for a new release. This year, no film is daring to open wide, but The Pyramid is coming the closest opening in just under 600 theaters. The film would need a per theater average of more than $10,000 to reach the top five, which is nearly impossible at this stage. This means the top five this week will mostly be the same as the top five last week with The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1 leading the way. Likewise, this weekend last year, Frozen led the way with more than $30 million. There is very little chance Mockingjay, Part 1 will match that, so 2014 will lose yet again in the year-over-year comparison.

The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1 has already pulled in more than $230 million, which is impressive. However, at this point in its run, Catching Fire had more than $300 million. Even if Mockingjay, Part 1 manages to maintain its pace with Catching Fire, something it hasn't managed to do so far, it will finish with roughly $350 million. If it manages to maintain the same legs as Catching Fire, something it has managed to do so far, then it will finish with $325 million. Catching Fire fell 65% during its third weekend of release and if Mockingjay, Part 1 does the same, it will earn $20 million over the weekend. Given its midweek box office numbers, it will likely beat this, but not by much. Look for $21 million over the weekend for more than $250 million as a running tally.

Penguins of Madagascar will be next, because no other film will be close to it in terms of box office numbers. It is a family-friendly film and the reviews are very good, so its legs should be the same. On the other hand, the post-Thankgiving weekend will result in a steep drop regardless of these factors. Look for a drop-off of just over 50% to $12 million over the weekend for a running tally of $50 million. This is lower than what many expected it would open with over a five-day period.

Big Hero 6 will remain in third place with $10 million over the weekend for a total of $180 million after a month of release. At this pace, it will reach $200 million, even if it doesn't last long enough in theaters to get a Christmas boost at the box office.

Interstellar should be next with $8 million over the weekend for a running tally of roughly $157 million.

Horrible Bosses 2 will round out the top five with $7 million over the weekend for just under $35 million after two weeks of release. Again, this is less than many were expecting for its five-day opening weekend. Worse still, its theater count will begin to drop as soon as there's new competition to start stealing theaters away from the film.

The only new release of the week that even has a shot at the top ten is The Pyramid, which is about... I still haven't watched the trailer to find out. That's how little of an impact I think this film will have at the box office. So, after watching the trailer, The Pyramid is about a new pyramid found in Egypt and the archaeological crew that explores it. It is also a horror movie, so it is not a spoiler to say that it doesn't go well for them. Unfortunately, the movie is also not doing well with critics, as there are very few reviews on Rotten Tomatoes and only one of them is positive. Worst still, the film is opening in less than 600 theaters and may miss the Mendoza Line. If it does, then it will miss the top ten with $1 million or less over the weekend. Even the high end only has it pulling in $3 million or so. The low end seems more likely. I think it will grab a spot in the top ten, but with an opening of only $1.3 million.


Filed under: Weekend Preview, Interstellar, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1, Penguins of Madagascar, Big Hero 6, Horrible Bosses 2, The Pyramid