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Weekend Predictions: Will 2013 Continue on Its Path to Oblivion?

April 18th, 2013

It is no secret that 2013 has been a bad year at the box office so far. There's only one film debuting wide this week, Oblivion, which should benefit from the lack of competition this weekend. (Although we are already seeing plenty of hype for Iron Man 3, which could hurt this film's chance at the box office.) There are also several films opening in more than 100 theaters: Filly Brown, Home Run, and The Lords of Salem. There's a chance one of them will be a better than expected hit and reach the top ten; it's a slim chance, but a chance. Finally, The Place Beyond the Pines is expanding to an additional 1,000 theaters and should climb higher in the top ten. Last year, there were three wide releases led by Think Like a Man. That film was a bigger than expected hit, but hopefully Oblivion will have an even better start, but not everyone is positive it will.

Oblivion is Tom Cruise's first Sci-fi film since The War of the Worlds. That film made nearly $600 million worldwide, including $234 million domestically, which at the time was Tom Cruise's biggest hit. Oblivion won't watch that number; it likely won't get halfway there. It is very rare for an April release to make that much money, while its reviews are merely mixed. Most critics agree that it looks great, but that the script is a little thin. There are some analysts who think Oblivion will open with $50 million, maybe even a little more. On the other hand, there are some who think it won't come that close to $30 million. Most analysts are grouped around $35 million, but I'm a little more bullish than the average analyst and I'm going with $40 million.

42 is aimed at a more mature target demographic, which means it is likely to have better than average legs. Its reviews will also help the film's legs this weekend. There are some who think it will fall less than 25% to close to $21 million. That's a little too bullish for me. On the other hand, $19 million over the weekend for a ten-day total of $55 million is a safe bet. This would put the film on pace to reach $100 million, if it can maintain its strong legs.

The Croods will top $150 million this weekend and after adding $9 million to its running tally, it will remain on pace for $175 million overall. This is a great run for this time of year.

G.I. Joe: Retaliation has already reached $100 million domestically and should earn between $5 million and $6 million more this weekend. The film is closing in on the its production budget and it will have no trouble earning a healthy profit early in its home market run.

Scary Movie will plummet more than 60% to just over $5 million. Its reviews are hideous, while the franchise is stale, so it has little hope of sticking around very long. In fact, it might drop so much that The Place Beyond the Pines might grab fifth place. The latter film is on track for $4 million to $5 million.


Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Croods, G.I. Joe: Retaliation, Oblivion, Scary Movie V, 42, Filly Brown, The Place Beyond the Pines, The Lords of Salem, Home Run, Scary Movie, Tom Cruise