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Weekend Predictions: Will Iron Man Be as Golden as Before?

May 2nd, 2013

Summer finally begins. 2013 has been a really bad year so far and after four months, it is 12% or $384 million behind last year's pace. On the one hand, the summer blockbuster season should boost 2013's overall numbers right out of the gate. A lot of people, myself included, think Iron Man 3 will have the second-best opening weekend of all time. On the other hand, the film with the biggest opening weekend of all time was The Avengers, which opened this weekend last year. We can't even look for a counter-programming film or holdovers to help 2013 over the top, as there are no counter-programming films and none of the holdovers are likely to reach $10 million over the weekend. Look for yet another loss in the year-over-year comparison.

Iron Man 3 has a lot going for it. It is earning some of the loudest buzz out of any film opening this year, perhaps the loudest. It is part of the biggest franchises of all time, not only the Iron Man films, but also The Avengers world of films. Its reviews are better than Iron Man 2's reviews were, by a little bit. It has already opened internationally and its numbers were simply fantastic. In some markets, it performed batter than The Avengers did. Does that mean till will make as much as The Avengers did? That's unlikely. However, Iron Man 3 could open with $175 million. Keep in mind, I am a little more bullish that most analysts and the average prediction is around $160 million, but no matter who's right, this film is headed towards a monster opening.

Pain and Gain will fall to second place with between $8 million and $9 million. This will push its running tally to $35 million, which is more than it cost to make. Assuming it can do about the same level of business internationally, it will break even sooner rather than later.

Oblivion has to deal with direct competition and that will push it to just $8 million over the weekend. This would give it $78 million after three weeks of release, which isn't bad for an April release, although this film reportedly cost $120 million to make, so it will need help internationally to break even.

So far, 42 has displayed very strong legs, and that should continue over the weekend. Look for $6 million over the weekend for a total of $78 million thus far.

The Croods and The Big Wedding should be in a tight battle for fifth place. Both should earn roughly $4 million with the former having a slight advantage over the latter. Additionally, for the former, this will be yet another strong weekend in the top five. For the latter, it will be a sharp decline before an early exit from theaters.


Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Croods, Iron Man 3, Pain & Gain, Oblivion, The Big Wedding, 42, Iron Man