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Weekend Estimates: The Heat is Hot, White House is Down and Out

June 30th, 2013

As expected, Monsters University will retain the box office crown this weekend with Disney projecting a thoroughly respectable $46.2 million and a decline of 44% from its opening -- good by today's standards, and particularly good for a sequel (albeit one whose target demographic wasn't born when the original came out). The real action this weekend, though, is among the other films in the top five. The Heat will open with a robust $40 million or so, per Fox, which compares favorably to its forebear Bridesmaids' opening of $26.2 million in 2011 (although a fairer comparison might be the $41.6 million debut of The Hangover 3 in May). Three male-oriented action movies fill out the next three spots on the chart, and the competition was too much for White House Down.

Roland Emmerich's 11th directing effort will be his worst wide release at the box office, adjusted for inflation (only the limited release Anonymous performed worse overall). The film already seemed on shaky ground when it was scheduled after the other White House terror movie, Olympus Has Fallen performed strongly when it was released in March. But what really killed the film was the comparative successes of World War Z and Man of Steel, both of which will top $20 million this weekend. World War Z is down 55% to $29.8 million for a total of $123.7 million so far. Man of Steel is close to $250 million in total after a $20.8 million weekend. Both films should do very nicely through the July 4 holiday.

In limited release, I'm So Excited (Los amantes pasajeros) will be a surprise winner on the per theater chart with an estimated $102,730 from just five theaters and an average topping $20,000. The only other two films to have reported so far that will top $10,000 are Monsters University and The Heat.

- Weekend Estimates

Bruce Nash

Filed under: Weekend Box Office, Monsters University, World War Z, The Hangover 3, White House Down, The Heat, Los amantes pasajeros, Roland Emmerich