Weekend Predictions: Wolverine to Slice Through the Competition
July 25, 2013
It's the final weekend of July and there is only one wide release to deal with, The Wolverine. It should be the easy winner of the weekend, it might pull in enough to become the biggest opening weekend of the month. This isn't likely, but there is a slim chance. There is one other film that might make an appearance in the top ten, The To Do List. Again, it doesn't have a strong chance, but it could happen. The holdovers should be far behind The Wolverine, as only The Conjuring has a shot at $20 million. This weekend last year, both new releases bombed, which is good news for 2013 in the year-over-year comparison. Granted, The Dark Knight Rises took in $62.10 million, which is something The Wolverine should have no trouble topping, while the holdovers should provide more depth.
The Wolverine is the follow up to both X-Men Origins: Wolverine and X-Men: The Last Stand. It takes place after the events of The Last Stand with Wolverine mourning the apparent death of Jean Grey. (I say apparent, because in the comic book world, you can never be sure if death is ever permanent.) He travels to Japan to meet someone from his past. Origins had a strong opening weekend, but its weak reviews hurt its legs and many fans of the franchise are now on a wait and see approach for The Wolverine. Its reviews are good, but not great. Many critics are complaining that the end of the movie is cartoonish. Granted, it is a comic book movie, so this shouldn't be too surprising. A Tomatometer Score of 66% positive shouldn't hurt the film, but it is probably too low to match its predecessor at the box office. Look for an opening weekend box office of $74 million, more or less.
The Conjuring earned some of the best reviews of the summer and many think that will help it avoid a 50% drop-off during its sophomore stint. However, while I would love that result, it is still a horror film and this genre historically has really short legs. The Purge fell 76% during its second weekend. Granted, its reviews were not strong. Mama fell 54%, and it earned positive reviews. Maybe it will avoid a 50% drop-off, but I think that's too much to ask for. Then again, earning $19 million during its second weekend of release is great for a film that reportedly cost just $20 million to make.
Despicable Me 2 should top $300 million over the weekend, earning $15 million over the next three days. I thought it would have been knocked out of the top five by now, but its competition has been weaker than I thought it would be.
Turbo should be right behing with between $12 million and $13 million. It will need strong international numbers to break even, but that isn't out of the question.
Grown Ups 2 should round out the top five with just under $10 million. That might be enough to get the film past $100 million.
Lastly, we get to The To Do List. This film is opening in just under 600 theaters, meaning it would need a per theater average of around $8,000 to reach the top ten. That's possible, but unlikely. The film's reviews have fallen below the overall positive level, which is a bad sign. Additionally, while the star, Aubrey Plaza, has serious comedic chops, she doesn't have a lot of star power, certainly not enough to carry the movie. There is a chance it will bomb missing the Mendoza line, but I think it will avoid that fate with between $2 million and $3 million during its opening weekend. That's not bad for a film that cost $1.2 million to make.
Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Wolverine, Turbo, Despicable Me 2, Grown Ups 2, The Conjuring, The To Do List, The Purge, Hugh Jackman, Famke Janssen, Aubrey Plaza