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Weekend Predictions: Holiday Between Blockbusters

November 14th, 2013

The Best Man Holiday

Last weekend, Thor: The Dark World made its debut. Next weekend, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire opens up. With these two monster hits opening so close together, it comes as no surprise that this weekend there are not a lot of new releases. In fact, we only have The Best Man Holiday as a wide release. It won't be able to score top spot, but the lack of direct competition should help it score a solid second place. On the down side, this weekend last year The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2 opened with $141.07 million, which is very likely more than the entire box office will make this season.

Thor: The Dark World opened with $85.74 million, which is much higher than the first film managed. Unfortunately, the reviews are not as strong and the sequel effect will compound with the Fanboy effect and could lead to a rather sharp drop-off. Worst case scenario has the film falling more than 60% to under $34 million, while the best case is still a 50% drop-off to $42 million. Splitting the difference to 55% and $38 million seems the wisest course of action. That will still give the movie close to $150 million, while it is easily on track to get to $200 million domestically.

As the only wide release of the week, The Best Man Holiday should have no problem earning a solid second place. In fact, it will be the only other film to earn more than $10 million. The original film came out more than a decade ago earning just over $9 million during its opening weekend. That might not sound like a lot, but it only cost $9 million to make, so the studio was very happy. Unfortunately, while its reviews were good, it came out a long, long time ago, so I'm not sure how many people remember the movie. This time around, the reviews are a little softer, but still strong enough to be a selling point. If the film doesn't make $20 million during its opening weekend, it will be a bit of a disappointment. It could make just over $25 million. I'm going with $22 million.

Free Birds should place third with $8 million over the weekend for a running tally of $42 million after three weeks of release. This is not enough to be a financial success, but it could have been worse. It might still break even, if its home market sales are strong year-after-year each Thanksgiving.

Last Vegas should be right behind with just under $8 million lifting its running tally to $46 million. Unlike Free Birds, it is not going to get annual sales on the home market, but it also cost less than $30 million to make and should do well internationally.

It looks like Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa will be next with $6 million or so; however, 12 Years a Slave will be right behind challenging throughout the weekend. Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa should finish the weekend with $88 million to $89 million, keeping it on pace for $100 million. 12 Years a Slave will have $26 million or so, making it one of the biggest limited release hits of the year.


Filed under: Weekend Preview, Free Birds, Thor: The Dark World, Last Vegas, The Best Man Holiday, 12 Years a Slave, Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa