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Weekend Predictions: Spider-Man Leaps into Action Early

July 3rd, 2012

July 4 Update: The Amazing Spider-Man opened with an estimated $35 million on Tuesday, the best-ever performance for a Tuesday (see complete chart), and setting the film up for $150m+ by the end of Sunday.

It's only Tuesday, but it is already the beginning of the Independence Day long weekend with The Amazing Spider-Man coming out tonight. In fact, it had midnight screenings starting in the morning and pulled in $7.5 million, of which $1.2 million came from IMAX. This is an impressive start and for some it has been enough to boost expectations. This is the same as Iron Man 2 managed during its midnight showings in 2010 and that film earned $128 million during its opening weekend. Of course, it didn't open on a Tuesday, so that's where the comparison breaks down.

The last time July 4th landed on a Wednesday was back in 2007 when Transformers opened to record-breaking numbers. It started with $8.8 million during its evening showings before making $27.9 million during its opening day. It might be tough for The Amazing Spider-Man to match that figure, even if it does have some advantages, like reviews that are solid at 73% positive. On the other hand, the original Spider-Man was a better movie, which could hurt ticket sales, especially with how recent that movie is. I'm going with just over $20 million for the rest of the day, close to $30 million on July 4th, just under $20 million on Thursday, and $66 million over the weekend.

Of course, I reserve the right to revise those predictions on Thursday with the rest of the weekend films.


Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Amazing Spider-Man