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Weekend Predictions: Ringing Out the Old Year

December 28th, 2012

There are three wide releases this weekend; however, all of them were released on Christmas day, so we have a few box office numbers to look at. Les Miserables was a surprise winner on Christmas day, while both Django Unchained and Parental Guidance also beat expectations, which bodes well for their perform this weekend. Even so, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey will likely remain in top spot as it crosses $200 million domestically. Compared to last year the box office looks pretty good. No film topped $30 million last year, but The Hobbit should get to that mark this year. However, last year seven films topped $10 million, while only six will do so this year. 2013 has a shot at ending on a winning note, but it should be close.

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey should win the weekend race, again, this time with just over $32 million at the box office. This will push its running tally to over $200 million and put it on pace for more than it cost to make. However, this is still substantially lower than expected and lower than Skyfall's final tally, meaning it won't be the biggest hit of the fall. That is a surprise.

While Les Miserables is currently in first place on the daily chart, it will likely fall to second place over the weekend with $28 million. Its reviews are strong, but not Oscar-worthy. I don't think this will hurt its box office chances this weekend, as word-of-mouth among fans should still be buzzing, but once awards are handed out it will fade compared to other Awards Season winners.

Django Unchained's reviews are among the best in the top ten, but it will have to settle for third place over the weekend with $25 million. It is still on pace to cross $100 million with relative ease and if it wins some awards, that figure will only grow.

On the other hand, Parental Guidance's reviews are terrible and they are currently under 20% positive. However, a lot of critics are complaining that it is just too bland to recommend, but this shouldn't hurt its box office power among families looking for a safe film to go to. As such, it should earn a solid fourth place with just over $14 million.

Jack Reacher should round out the top five with just under $14 million. The reviews are good, but not great, while it will suffer at the hand of direct competition. However, it is still the weekend after Christmas and this weekend is known for strong legs.


Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, Django Unchained, Les Miserables, Parental Guidance, Jack Reacher