Making a Jackass out of Analysts
October 18, 2010
After more than a few films missed expectations over the past few weeks, it is nice to see a film crush expectations so soundly. Jackass 3D slapped around the naysayers so thoroughly that it nearly helped turn around 2010's losing streak. It did help the overall box office grow 42% from last weekend to $132 million, but that was still roughly 5% lower than the same weekend last year. (This was due to better depth at the box office last year.) 2010 is still ahead of 2009 at $8.48 billion to $8.22 billion, but I'm a little concerned that lead won't last till the end of the year.
Jackass 3D opened in first place, which was practically the only prediction analysts got right about the movie. Its opening weekend of $50.35 million was well ahead of almost all predictions. Its opening weekend was almost as much as the previous Jackass films' combined openings. It earned the best October opening ever. And it was the second best opening for an R-rated comedy behind just Sex and the City. (Probably not a huge crossover audience between those two films.) Its reviews were excellent, given the source, and reaching $100 million domestically is practically guaranteed, while it will be interesting to see what it does internationally. (The other films were not major players internationally.) Regardless, Jackass 4 will get the greenlight because of this opening weekend, and possibly 5 and 6.
The only other wide release of the week, Red, also beat expectations earning $21.76 million during its opening weekend of release. But despite this, its success will be overlooked when compared to Jackass 3D. Likewise, it earned good reviews, but no better than the number one film, and its more mature target demographic should help it earn better legs. $50 million should be an easy goal to reach, while with a little luck, $60 million won't be out of the question.
The Social Network continues its run to $100 million adding $10.32 million over the weekend for a total of $62.44 million after three. Even with its reviews and its legs, it likely won't be able to reach the century mark unless its gets a boost from Awards Season success. Fortunately, it seems to be the front-runner in that regard.
Shockingly, Secretariat had the best sophomore stint drop-off for a wide release this year, down a mere 27% to $9.32 million over the past three days for a ten-day total of $27.33 million. With a price-tag of just $35 million, this could be enough to help the film earn a profit, eventually.
Rounding out the top five was Life As We Know It, which also held up a little better than expected, down 38% to $8.96 million over the weekend for $28.62 million after two. Reaching $50 million is a lot more likely now, which will be enough to call the film a midlevel hit, barely.
The only sophomore class film not to reach the top five was My Soul to Take, which landed in eighth place with $3.17 million over the weekend for a running tally of $11.92 million. That was down 54%, the worst result in the top ten, but it could have been so much worse.
Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Secretariat, Life as We Know It, The Social Network, My Soul to Take, Red, Jackass 3D