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Taking a Break from Monster Hits

June 1st, 2006

For the second weekend in a row there's only one wide release to deal with. However, unlike last weekend, there is no chance records will be broken, at least not the good kind. The weekend should keep pace with 2005, which saw the all three wide releases struggle. In fact, the one wide release this week could make more than all three did last year.

After X-Men: The Last Stand's record-breaking opening last weekend, analysts look to predict how much the fanboy effect will impact the film's box office performance this weekend. The consensus is it will crush the movie. A 60% drop-off is all but guaranteed this weekend with most expecting the movie to be pushed below the $40 million mark. But even then if it breaks the record for largest sophomore drop-off for a film that opened in first place (currently held by Hulk at 69.66%), it would still make about $31 million for a 10-day total of more than $170 million. Odds are it will finish a lot closer to the high end of that range, earning $39 million for a total of almost $180 million after the weekend.

Second place should go to the only new release of the week, The Break-Up. As expected, the anti-romantic comedy is earning teribble reviews, which is common for films of this genre. However, its reviews are bad even compared to the historical norms. Will this have an effect on the film's box office? Probably not over the opening weekend, but it could hurt the film's legs. In the end the film's star power will win out, helping the film to $35 million, which puts it in striking distance of X-Men: The Last Stand should that film stumble just a bit more than expected.

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Way back is The Da Vinci Code, which hopes to recover from last week's 55.8% drop-off. Helping the film is the lack of killer competition and historical norms. Usually a film suffers its worst drop-off during its sophomore stint, until it starts shedding theatres. On the other hand, this is a post-holiday weekend and that could hurt the film as well. Look for a 50% drop-off to $17 million over the weekend and a total of $170 million. This does put the film well above Ice Age: The Meltdown's pace, but it won't be able to top that film before X-Men: The Last Stand can.

It will be a milestone weekend for Over the Hedge as it is a virtual lock to reach $100 million. While this is good news, it is still well behind expectations and with only about $16 million over the weekend and Cars nearly here, it won't be able to top $150 million domestically. It's still making enough to show a sizeable profit, but its run is disappointing nonetheless.

It should be a relatively close batter between Mission: Impossible 3 and Poseidon for the final spot in the top five with the former holding the edge over the latter, and both bringing in about $3 million.

One last note, it looks like An Inconvenient Truth will make a stab for the top ten this weekend as it expands into 77 theatres in the top ten markets. This should give it more than $1 million, which will be enough to grab 10th place.


Filed under: X-Men: The Last Stand, The Da Vinci Code, Over the Hedge, Mission: Impossible III, The Break-Up, Poseidon, An Inconvenient Truth