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This Weekend will be Incredible

November 5th, 2004

Predicting which movie will finish on top of the charts this weekend is a simple matter. The real question is will The Incredibles break records, and if so, how many.

The Incredibles will easily take top spot this weekend, not to mention biggest hit of November, and the rest of the year, for that matter. Will it beat Finding Nemo's opening at the box office? Yes. Will it beat Shrek 2's record opening for an animated movie? Not likely. But it should finish nicely in the middle of those two figures, which would put it close to breaking the record for a November opening. The reasons for this are simple. Firstly, it's a Pixar Film, and no company has had the same level of success since its theatrical debut almost a decade a go. Secondly, its reviews are amazing at 94% positive, (which is actually lower than I expected, as I was expecting a perfect score.) And lastly, the movie is the first chance for people to see the Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith trailer, and that will add several million more to the box office. All in all, look for $88 million over the weekend, with plenty more during its run. This film will still be in the top ten when Christmas arrives.

With a substantial increase in its theatre count, Ray should be able to hold onto second place. Its per theatre average will drop a respectably 40%, but that still gives the Ray Charles Biopic a $15 million weekend, more than some were predicting for its opening last weekend.

Without Halloween giving a boast to horror films, the next two on the chart will see serious drops. The Grudge will see its box office cut in half to under $11 million, while Saw will suffer a similar fate landing at just over $9 million.

Rounding out the top five should be the counter programming film of the week, Alfie. The remake is getting better reviews that I was expecting. Not good reviews, mind you, just better than I was expecting. Its theatre count, on the other hand, is lower than I expected at just over 2200, and that is not a good sign. Look for just $7 million this weekend, and legs that are merely average.

There are two movies having sneak peaks on Saturday. After the Sunset will play in 1000 theatres while or Polar Express will play in a little more than half that number.

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Filed under: The Incredibles, The Polar Express, The Grudge, Ray, Saw, Alfie, After the Sunset