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Weekend Predictions: Insurgent vs. Divergent

March 19th, 2015

Cinderella poster

Insurgent leads the three wide releases coming out this weekend. Although that is really an understatement. Insurgent will likely earn more on its opening day than the combined weekend totals of The Gunman and Do You Believe? The real competition for Insurgent is Divergent, which opened this weekend last year with $54.61 million. If Insurgent doesn't at least match that, then the franchise is in trouble going forward. Cinderella should have no trouble earning second place, but how much Insurgent's crossover audience hurts Cinderella will go a long way in determining Cinderella's legs. This weekend last year, Divergent opened and it looks like Insurgent will have no trouble topping that number. Additionally, Muppets Most Wanted opened in second place with $17.01 million and Cinderella should make twice that this weekend. This should give 2015 an easy win over the weekend in the year-over-year comparison.

This weekend last year, Divergent opened with $54.61 million. This year, Insurgent is hoping to top that figure. Sequels generally open faster than the first film of a franchise does; however, this isn't always the case and there are some reasons to be pessimistic. Firstly, the first film's reviews weren't great with many critics complaining about the lack of originality and the weak pacing. Sadly, this film's reviews are even worse. Again, Shailene Woodley and others are being praised for their performances, but the film simply doesn't stand out compared to other Young Adult dystopias. Additionally, Cinderella is much stronger competition than what Divergent had to deal with. I still think Insurgent will open faster, but it isn't a sure thing. I'm predicting a $58 million opening.

Cinderella got off to a great start last weekend and given its reviews and its target demographic, it should have a strong hold this weekend. On the other hand, it is also dealing with some strong competition and that will take its toll over this weekend. On the low end, the film could fall more than 50% down to just over $30 million. On the high end, it will top $40 million. I'm going with $37 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $123 million. This will keep it on pace for $200 million, more or less.

The next three films should be in a close race with each of them earning $6 million, more or less.

Do You Believe? is the latest faith-based film to hit theaters. It is from the same studio that released God's Not Dead, which came out this time last year. That film was savaged by critics. So far, there is only one review on Rotten Tomatoes, but it is positive, so that's a good sign. On the other hand, God's Not Dead really was a lightning in a bottle movie and it is very unlikely that this will happen twice. I think Do You Believe? will open in fifth place, but will rise to third place by Sunday and finish third overall with just over $6 million.

The final wide release is The Gunman, which was earning zero percent positive reviews for the longest time. Things have improved and it is now earning 15% positive reviews. That's not a big enough difference to matter and the film has direct competition to deal with. I think it will open in third place on Friday, but drop to fifth place by Sunday finishing in fourth place with $6 million.

Run All Night is earning much better reviews than this week's direct competition has earned, but it will still fall to fifth place with just under $6 million. I just hope it didn't cost a lot to make, because it certainly won't make enough to break even any time soon.


Filed under: Weekend Preview, Cinderella, The Divergent Series: Insurgent, Run All Night, The Gunman, Do You Believe?, Shailene Woodley