Weekend Predictions: Is There Still an Audience for a Jurassic Film?
June 12, 2015
Jurassic World is the only wide release this week and its box office potential is so high that it has scared away even the counter-programming. It isn't the only film playing in theaters this weekend, but it will very likely make more at the box office than the rest of them combined. Spy will be a distant second place and is hoping not to be crushed. If it can avoid falling 50%, it should have enough legs to reach the century mark. ... with a push from the studio. The only other film that is on track to earn more than $10 million over the weekend is San Andreas, which already crossed the $100 million mark. This weekend last year, two films opened wide, 22 Jump Street and How to Train Your Dragon 2. Neither film will match Jurassic World individually, but they might have the advantage if you combine their openings. Additionally, there will only be two $10 million films this weekend, while there were three last year. 2015 will win on top, but 2014 has better depth and I think 2015 will lose the year-over-year comparison... again.
Jurassic World is the latest film in the Jurassic Park franchise, one that begun more than 20 years ago. The first film earned amazing reviews and broke records at the box office. However, the other two sequels were not as strong either with critics or with moviegoers. This could result in less interest in this movie. On the other hand, the reviews are mostly good—nowhere near as strong as the original, but strong enough for a summer blockbuster. As for its box office potential, anything less than $100 million will be seen as a serious disappointment. Anything more than $125 million will be a pleasant surprise. I'm going with a prediction of $114 million, which would be the third-biggest opening of 2015.
Despite earning some of the best reviews of the year, Spy opened on the low end of expectations. Now it hopes to avoid being crushed by Jurassic World. The film's strong reviews and its female-centric target audience should help it avoid that fate. In fact, there are some who think it will avoid falling 50%. That seems optimistic, so I'm going with a sophomore stint of $14 million.
San Andreas reached the nine-digit mark on Monday and will surpass $110 million either late Friday or early Saturday. This is how much it cost to make, so if it can do as well internationally as it did here, relative to the size of the various international markets, then it could break even before its home market run. A $12 million weekend will certainly help with that goal.
Insidious Chapter 3 is a horror film with acceptable reviews. As such, a 60% drop-off is likely, which will leave it with just $8 million over the weekend. On the positive side, it didn't cost much to make, so it will likely surpass its combined budget over the weekend.
There will be a logjam for fifth place between Mad Max: Fury Road, Pitch Perfect 2, Entourage, Tomorrowland, in that order. All of these will likely earn $4 million, more or less.
Filed under: Weekend Preview, Jurassic World, Mad Max: Fury Road, Entourage, Tomorrowland, Spy!, Insidious Chapter 3, San Andreas, Pitch Perfect 2, Jurassic Park