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Weekend Predictions: Will Dinosaur have a Good Opening?

November 25th, 2015

The Good Dinosaur

It appears The Good Dinosaur will win the box office race this weekend with The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 being pushed into second place. Creed should have the best opening weekend of the franchise. Meanwhile, Victor Frankenstein is just hoping for a spot in the top five. I don't think it will get there. Both new releases from last year failed to meet expectations, so that gives 2015 a real shot at coming out on top of the year-over-year comparison.

The Good Dinosaur had a bit of a troubled production, which led to a years delay in its release. Fortunately, whatever problems the film may have had appear to have been corrected, because it is earning plenty of critical praise. The only downside is its target audience. Pixar usually makes films for adults that kids can also enjoy. That's the best way to make a family film. However, this time around many critics, even those giving it a positive review, have said the film is aiming for kids more than adult fans of animation. This could hurt its box office chances somewhat. That said, it should still come out on top with roughly $53 million over the weekend for a total opening of $74 million.

The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 should be close behind with $51 million. It is the final installment in the Hunger Games franchise and the reviews are good, so fans will likely want to see it more than once and that should help its legs. Also, the Thanksgiving holiday should boost its chances over the weekend. A $51 million weekend would give it close to $200 million after ten days of release and keep it on pace for $300 million.

Creed is the seventh installment in the Rocky franchise, a franchise that has lasted nearly 40 years. Normally this would raise a lot of questions, most of them being, "Why?" It is usually a mistake to try and work with a franchise this old. However, the most recent installment, Rocky Balboa, earned great reviews and was a box office hit. Will this film do the same? It is too soon to tell if it will top Rocky Balboa at the box office, but its reviews are fantastic. I think it will do very well at the box office earning $21 million / $32 million over the three-day / five-date weekend. If it has good legs, it could reach $100 million by the end of its box office run.

On the one hand, The Peanuts Movie is a family film and Thanksgiving is a family holiday, so that should help it at the box office. On the other hand, it does have direct competition. I think it will grab fourth place with just over $10 million over the weekend for a total of close to $120 million. If it can last in theaters till the New Year, it should be able to get to $150 million. That's not a sure thing, but it is also not out of the question.

Spectre should round out the top five with just under $10 million for a total of close to $175 million. It should get to $200 million before its run is over.

This will leave Victor Frankenstein on the outside of the top five. It does have a good cast and the Frankenstein story is well-known. However, its reviews are simply terrible. Too many critics are complaining that the film does nothing fresh or original with the material and that audiences will be reminded of much better versions of the same story. Look for a sixth place opening with $9 million / $14 million.

Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Good Dinosaur, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2, The Peanuts Movie, Victor Frankenstein, Spectre, Creed, Rocky, Hunger Games