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Weekend Estimates: Mockingjay Rules Thanksgiving Roost

November 29th, 2015

Mockingjay Part 2

The combined forces of a 50% weekend-to-weekend decline at the box office and two strong rivals wasn’t enough to knock The Hunger Games: Mockingjay—Part 2 off its perch at the top of the box office chart this Thanksgiving. With a three-day total of $51.6 million (and $75.8 million over five), the franchise-capper will finish the holiday just shy of $200 million at the domestic box office. With a reported $242.4 million overseas, the film is hurrying towards $500 million worldwide, and sits at $440.7 million as of Sunday evening.

The two openers to hit a chord with audiences are The Good Dinosaur and Creed, both of which are posting solid numbers. The Good Dinosaur will be second for the weekend with $39.2 million Friday-to-Sunday, and $55.6 million since Wednesday. That represents the worst first weekend in wide release for a Pixar-produced movie since A Bug’s Life, way back in 1998, and the worst ever when adjusted for inflation. It’s also only the second Pixar film to open in second place, following Inside Out’s debut earlier this year.

Is this a case of too much Pixar in one year? 2015 marks the first time the studio has released two films in a year, but it follows a break of two years between Monsters University and Inside Out, so we can hardly call this an over-supply of content from them. The studio has Finding Dory coming up next year, before releasing two films again in 2017 (Cars 3 and Coco) and then one is scheduled in 2018 (Toy Story 4). The next few years will tell us a lot about the long-term evolution of the studio. 2015 does feel like something of a turning point.

The weekend’s other big movie is Creed, aka Rocky 7. Unlike The Good Dinosaur, this movie will post a franchise-best opening weekend, with $30.1 million Friday-to-Sunday and $42.6 million since opening on Wednesday. That beats Rocky IV’s $20 million opening way back in 1985, and also over Thanksgiving, in fact. To be fair, that earlier installment sold more tickets over its opening weekend, but still the performance for Creed is impressive, and breathes new life into a franchise that’s almost 40 years old.

Much less impressive, Victor Frankenstein will post $2.35 million this weekend (and $3.4 million for the five-day weekend). The long-delayed film suffered from poor reviews and limited marketing, but those are dollars Fox is probably glad it saved at this point.

In limited release, Carol and The Danish Girl both produced huge numbers in just four theaters: a projected $203,076 for Carol and $185,000 for The Danish Girl. Both films seem certain to produce acting Oscar nominations: for Cate Blanchett and Rooney Mara for Carol, and Eddie Redmayne and Alicia Vikander for The Danish Girl.

- Weekend estimates
- Mockingjay Part 2 comps
- The Hunger Games franchise details
- Disney-Pixar production company history
- Rocky franchise history
- Spectre comps
- James Bond franchise history
- Peanuts comps
- The Martian comps

Bruce Nash,

Filed under: Weekend Box Office, The Danish Girl, The Good Dinosaur, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2, Victor Frankenstein, Creed, Carol, James Bond, Rocky, Hunger Games, Cate Blanchett, Rooney Mara, Eddie Redmayne, Alicia Vikander