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Weekend Wrap-Up: Deadpool Assassinates the Competition

February 17th, 2016


Most people thought Deadpool would be a big hit over the weekend. I didn't see a single prediction that said it would be this big. It earned $132.43 million over the three-day weekend, which is more than enough to cover its entire production budget and a healthy chunk of its advertising budget. ... Or at least its initial advertising budget. Needless to say, there is already a sequel in the works. How to be Single had a very solid opening, while Zoolander 2 will need to become a hit on the home market in order to break even. The overall box office rose 150% from last weekend to $239 million over three days. Wow. This weekend last year, Fifty Shades of Grey debuted. Deadpool made almost as much in the four days it was in theaters than Fifty Shades of Grey made in total. It goes without saying that 2016 won the year-over-year comparison. Its 11% difference is impressive. Year-to-date, 2016 has earned $1.44 billion, which is 1.9% more than 2015's running tally at the same stage.

Deadpool broke several records earning $132.43 million / $152.19 million over the three-day / four-day weekend. I was bullish about this film's chances, but wanted to be a little cautious, because I was worried my fandom was clouding my judgment. The film doubled my prediction. That's awesome. This is already more than any other R-rated Super Hero Comic Book movie ever made. (It took just three days to top Watchmen's box office total of $107.51 million.) It also broke some biggest records, including Biggest February Weekend, Biggest Opening for an R-Rated Film, Biggest Valentine's Day, etc. It is close to breaking even; however, I think it is very likely that Fox will increase its advertising budget, both domestically and internationally, while they will spend a lot more on its eventual home market release. That said, it should break even just on its domestic theatrical numbers, which is something only about one in ten films manage to do. If there is a downside, it is the Fanboy Effect. Even movies with great reviews tend to collapse under the weight of the Fanboy effect. It's a minor downside, given the film's opening.

Kung Fu Panda 3 held on better than expected with $19.76 million / $25.91 million over the weekend helping it crack $100 million after 18 days of release. Its running tally of $100.18 million is still below the pace of first two films in the franchise, but it still has a good shot at matching its $140 million production budget domestically. It will make twice that internationally, at the very least, meaning it will break even before the lucrative home market.

How to be Single opened in fourth place with $17.88 million / $19.90 million. The film cost $37 million to make and only earned 46% positive reviews, but this is still a good start. I expect it to break even during its initial run on the home market.

Zoolander 2 struggled, earning fourth place with $13.84 million / $15.88 million over the weekend. It made less than the first Zoolander opened with, and that's before you take inflation into account. The movie also cost $50 million to make and its reviews are a disaster, so unless it is a surprise hit internationally, or finds some serious legs on the home market, it won't break even any time soon.

Fifth place was a mess, as three films finished in a close race and changed positions, depending on if you looked at the three-day or four day weekend. Over three days, The Revenant led the way with $6.53 million, just ahead of Hail, Caesar! ($6.40 million) and Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($6.16 million). However, over four days, The Force Awakens climbed into fifth place with $7.64 million, putting it just ahead of The Revenant ($7.58 million) and Hail, Caesar! ($7.37 million).

Looking in on the Sophomore Class, The Choice landed in eighth place with $5.22 million / $5.62 million over the weekend. It got a little boost from Valentine's Day, but not enough to matter in the end. Pride and Prejudice and Zombies fell more than 50% to just $2.56 million / $2.97 million over the weekend for a total of $9.86 million after 11 days of release. Most people thought it would open with more than that.

- Weekend Box Office

- Deadpool comparisons
- Zoolander 2 comparisons
- How to be Single comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Wrap-up, Deadpool, Zoolander 2, Pride and Prejudice and Zombies, Kung Fu Panda 3, Star Wars Ep. VII: The Force Awakens, How to be Single, The Revenant, The Choice, Hail, Caesar!, Kung Fu Panda