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Weekend Predictions: Zootopia Hopes to Have a Wild Debut

March 4th, 2016


March begins with three wide releases and there is a potential record-breaker in that list, sort of. Zootopia isn't going to challenge The Hunger Games for Biggest March Opening, but it has a good shot at topping The Lorax for biggest opening for an animated film in March. London Has Fallen needs to make close to $30 million this weekend, if it is to have any real shot at breaking even any time soon. This isn't going to happen. Meanwhile, Whiskey Tango Foxtrot is just hoping to come close to $10 million over the weekend. This weekend last year, the box office was led by Chappie with just $13.35 million. Zootopia will earn way more than that on opening night. It should be a great weekend for 2016 in the year-over-year comparison.

And the Oscar goes to... Zootopia for Best Animated Feature. I'm getting that prediction out of the way, because so far it has 100% positive reviews. Additionally, there are 93 reviews, so you can't claim these are just "early reviews" either. Granted, there will likely be a few negative ones that filter in over the weekend, but this movie could go down as the best wide release of the year. As for its box office chances, the range is from $65 million on the low end to over $75 million on the high end. Given the number of advanced tickets sold, I think the high end is a little more likely and I'm going with a $72 million opening weekend. That will top The Lorax for the record for biggest March opening for an animated film.

London Has Fallen is the sequel to Olympus Has Fallen, a film that I really doubt broke even. It also didn't earn good reviews, but it looks like an Oscar winner compared to this film. At the moment, London Has Fallen's Tomatometer Score is a mere 23% positive. This is a little better than Gods of Egypt earned last week, but is still really bad. It should open in second with roughly $20 million, which isn't good for a film that cost $105 million to make. It also isn't a complete disaster.

Deadpool in on pace to top $300 million early in the weekend. Only three previous R-rated movies have managed to reach that milestone, so this is very impressive. Look for a weekend haul of $17 million, which would give it a third place finish. If London Has Fallen flops, it could earn second place.

Whiskey Tango Foxtrot is an R-rated comedy starring Tina Fey. She was recently in Sisters, which did really well last Christmas. The two films have earned identical reviews, but Whiskey Tango Foxtrot is not as easy to market as Sisters was. Because of that, it will likely not do nearly as well at the box office. I would love it if it could top $10 million over the weekend, but just under $9 million is more likely.

Gods of Egypt should fall to fifth place with about $6 million to $7 million. Its reviews and mostly direct competition will likely result in a quick exit from theaters.

- Zootopia comparisons
- London Has Fallen comparisons
- Whiskey Tango Foxtrot comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Deadpool, Gods of Egypt, Sisters, London Has Fallen, Zootopia, Whiskey Tango Foxtrot, Tina Fey