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Weekend Predictions: Will Audience Find Dory? Is Seeing Central Intelligence the Smart Thing to do?

June 16th, 2016


This weekend should be the best weekend in June, led by Finding Dory. Finding Dory should easily be the biggest hit of the month, one of the biggest hits of the year, and the fastest opening film in Pixar's history. On the other hand, Central Intelligence is just hoping for a solid second place opening in its role as counter-programming. If it hits $30 million, then the studio will be very happy. This weekend last year, Jurassic World led the way with $106.59 million, while Inside Out opened in second place with $90.44 million. 2016 is going to lose more ground to 2015. I just hope they keep it close. I will be happy if Finding Dory and Central Intelligence earned a combined $150 million to $170 million.

Finding Dory is the sequel to Finding Nemo. Finding Nemo opened in 2003 and earned 99% positive reviews, while its box office numbers were just as fantastic at over $900 million worldwide. It is still in the top ten animated films. I don't think many people thought Finding Dory would top Finding Nemo in terms of reviews, but most hoped it would at least come close. With 77 reviews, the film's Tomatometer Score is 95% positive, which is the second-best wide release of the year, behind only Zootopia. As far as its box office potential is concerned, it could become the second biggest hit of the year, but it won't start that fast. It is a family film, and these films rarely have monster openings, but they tend to have very long legs. For example, the biggest animated hit of all time, domestically, is Shrek 2 at $441.23 million. However, while it has the 11th biggest domestic box office, the biggest opening weekend for an animated film belogs to Shrek the Third in 23rd place with $121.63 million. Both of these records have a chance of falling. Finding Dory's low end for its opening weekend is $120 million, while it has a shot at just over $140 million. I'm going with $129 million. Meanwhile, it should earn at least three times that by the time its domestic run is over, putting it on pace to reach $400 million, while $450 million is possible. Let's hope it is this big of a hit, because the box office could use the boost.

Central Intelligence features Dwayne Johnson and Kevin Hart. This is a combination that seems so logical that I'm surprised this is the first movie they've made together. The buddy cop comedy is earning good reviews, but not great reviews. Ride Along 2 opened in January this year and earned $33.38 million during its opening weekend. Central Intelligence has better reviews and a better release date, but also has strong competition. I think these factors balance out, more or less. Look for an opening of $35 million and it has a shot at $100 million domestically.

The Conjuring 2: The Enfield Poltergeist will go from first to third with just under $20 million over the weekend. It will fall just over 50% due to a combination of factors. Its genre tends to have short legs, while sequels are also more front-loaded than original films. Its reviews will help, but not enough to avoid losing half of its opening box office. That said, it will remain on pace to hit $100 million domestically, which is a great run for a film that cost just $40 million to make.

Next up is Now You See Me 2. The original Now You See Me showed surprisingly strong legs dipping just 35% during its second weekend of release. That's not going to happen this time around. The reviews are weaker and the competition is much, much stronger. I don't think it will fall more than 50%, but it will be close at between $12 million and $13 million.

Warcraft has to deal with bad reviews, massive Fanboy effect, and lots of competition at the box office. Falling 60% seems likely, which would put it at under $10 million. It could fall close to 70%, which would be just over $7 million. Splitting the difference gets us to $8.5 million. At least it has China.

One last note: The Angry Birds Movie reached $100 million on Wednesday, while Captain America: Civil War is on pace to become the first $400 million hit of the year during the weekend.

- Finding Dory Comparisons
- Central Intelligence Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Central Intelligence, Warcraft, Finding Dory, The Angry Birds Movie, Captain America: Civil War, The Conjuring 2: The Enfield Poltergeist, Now You See Me 2, Kevin Hart, Dwayne Johnson