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Weekend Predictions: Party Time

August 11th, 2016

Sausage Party

Before we talk about the weekend predictions... If you can read this, it means my transfer worked well enough and I can do work from my parents house while pet-sitting. I will be at my parents place for three weeks looking after their dog and cat. I was at their house for less than 30 minutes before stepping into a puddle of dog drool. It is going to be a very long three weeks. ... As for the releases for the week, they are all amazing. The film earning the weakest reviews at the moment is Sausage Party, which is earning 82% positive reviews. 82% positive is the weakest of the three wide releases. That's amazing. On the other hand, it won't be the biggest release of the week. Pete’s Dragon has a better than 50/50 chance at reaching $100 million in total; however, as a family film, it will start relatively slow, but have good legs. Finally, there’s Florence Foster Jenkins, which is an early Oscar contender. It is not opening in a lot of theaters, so it is going to need great word-of-mouth to thrive. None of these new releases will match last year’s number one film, Straight Outta Compton, so it will be up to Suicide Squad to keep 2016 on the winning track. I think it will collapse by more than 60%, but 2016 has a lot better depth than 2015 and it will come out on top.

Suicide Squad earned $133.68 million during its opening weekend. It is widely expected to collapse this weekend. The real question is whether or not it will fall faster than Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice did earlier this year. My first thought was, "BvS fell 69%. Suicide Squad can’t do worse, right?" However, there are some reasons to be concerned. For example, Suicide Squad managed to earn worse reviews. Also, Suicide Squad has to deal with much stronger competition with two new releases that should earn $30 million or more over the weekend. If the film does fall faster than BvS, it will earn $40 million or less. We will call that the worst case scenario. Fortunately, the daily numbers haven't been that bad and the film should fall closer to 60% giving it $51 million over the weekend. Coincidentally, this is almost exactly what BvS made during its second weekend of release.

Pete’s Dragon is the latest Disney remake to hit theaters. The original Pete’s Dragon is an excellent target for a remake, as its reviews are mixed, so there’s room for improvement and it doesn’t feel like a cash grab. In fact, this film’s reviews are 87% positive, which is among the best of all wide releases to come out this year. Unfortunately, August is not a great time of year to release a film like this, so it won’t be a monster hit. It should open with close to $35 million and finish with over $100 million domestically. With a little luck, it will earn $125 million, which is almost twice its $65 million production budget.

Up next is Sausage Party,a film with a premise so strange that I thought it was an internet prank when I first heard it. Like the Dora the Explorer Trailer. It’s real. It’s real and its reviews are excellent. I was hoping for just overall positive reviews, but 82% positive should convince a few fence-sitters to give the movie a shot. Because of that, I’m upping my prediction to just over $30 million, which is how much it cost to make.

Jason Bourne should be next with just over $10 million over the weekend. Its legs are shorter than other films in the franchise, but by the end of the weekend, it will have made more domestically than it cost to make.

The final wide release of the week is Florence Foster Jenkins, although it is only opening in 1,500 theaters, so that’s not truly wide. Fortunately, it is the best new release on this week’s list at 90% positive. Additionally, Meryl Streep is practically a shoe-in for an Oscar nomination for her performance and it likely won’t be the only Oscar nomination the film earns. The low theater count will likely keep it from earning over $10 million, but it should be close. I’m predicting $9 million, but the good reviews will lead to long legs.

- Pete’s Dragon Comparisons
- Sausage Party Comparisons
- Florence Foster Jenkins Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Jason Bourne, Sausage Party, Suicide Squad, Florence Foster Jenkins, Pete’s Dragon, Bourne, Meryl Streep