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Friday Estimates: Winter Chill is Good for Moana

December 3rd, 2016


As expected, Moana led the way at the box office on Friday. It did so thanks to a $6.45 million haul. This is just 4.2% lower than Frozen managed during the same period in its run. If Moana has the same internal multiplier over the weekend, then it will earn just over $30 million. That would be amazing. That would be $6 million better than expected. I think it is going to have trouble keeping up that pace, but a sub-50% drop-off to $29 million is still impressive, especially for this time of year. The film has $97.96 million as of Friday and by the time you read this, it may have already crossed $100 million on Saturday. If it continues to show legs like this, then the film will still be in wide release on Christmas Day, which will be a boon to its box office numbers.

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them was in second place with $5.04 million on Friday. It won’t have as big of a bounce on Saturday, because there are fewer families heading out to see in during the matinee this weekend. That said, it will still earn close to $19 million, which is nearly identical to our prediction.

None of the rest of the holdovers will top $10 million over the weekend, but there are a few new releases worth mentioning.

Incarnate landed in ninth place on Friday with $915,000. It likely won’t stay there for long. The film’s reviews are just 21% positive, and it only managed a C minus with CinemaScore. Granted, horror movies tend to earn lower CinemaScores, but even so, a C minus is a disaster for the film’s legs. It is going to earn closer to $2 million than $3 million and very likely drop out of the top ten by the end of the weekend.

Believe was also a disaster with just $169,000 in 639 theaters. Its theater average will be below $1,000 and there’s no way to spin that in a positive light. There are only three reviews on Rotten Tomatoes and it wasn’t tracked by CinemaScore, so it is hard to judge what the film’s word of mouth will be. That said, theater owners will drop the film as soon as they are contractually able to.

Jackie will likely earn more in total than the previous two releases. It got off to a great start with just over $90,000 in 5 theaters for an average of $18,148. Had the film done that well over the full weekend, it would have been seen as a good, but not great debut. For a single day, it’s simply great. The film is earning 87% positive reviews, while Natalie Portman is earning some serious Oscar buzz. A start like this can only help her chances.

- Friday Box Office Chart

- Moana Comparisons
- Incarnate Comparisons

Filed under: Friday Estimates, Natalie Portman