Weekend Estimates: Niche Audiences to the Fore at Home, Guardians Big Overseas

April 30, 2017

How to Be a Latin Lover

The last weekend before the Summer season is generally a quiet one, but two breakout hits aimed at niche audiences are making this one interesting. How to Be a Latin Lover will post a shade over $12 million from just 1,118 theaters, according to Lionsgate’s weekend estimate. That would be the news of the weekend if it wasn’t for Baahubali 2: The Conclusion earning the best weekend for a Bollywood movie in history with a stellar $10.1 million from just 425 locations. Those two films couldn’t knock The Fate of the Furious off top spot though, as the action blockbuster added another $19.4 million, to take its domestic total to $192.7 million.

Having two films playing in less than 1,500 theaters reach the top three is incredibly rare. In fact, this is the first time it’s happened since the weekend of September 22, 2000, and I’d lay a sizable bet that no-one could name off the top of their heads the two films involved that time (a re-release of The Exorcist and the slowly-expanding Almost Famous, if you were wondering).

The breakouts of these two films isn’t a huge surprise, however, given that Eugenio Derbez already had an $8 million domestic weekend under his belt from his previous Latino-targeted comedy, No se Aceptan Devoluciones / Instructions Not Included, and that Baahubali: The Beginning opened with $3.2 million from just 236 theaters, and hit the top ten back in 2015. They are, however, above expectations going into the weekend, and highlight the challenges in tracking sub-groups of moviegoers.

The big disappointment this weekend is The Circle, which couldn’t overcome mediocre reviews and poor word-of-mouth, in spite of having a top-notch cast and creative team. It will finish the weekend with about $9.3 million. That’s not a disaster, and its theater average will be close to $3,000, but the film promised a lot more. Similarly, in limited release, Sleight will make about $1.7 million from 565 theaters, for an average also on the cusp of $3,000.

A couple of indie releases are worth attention this weekend. Documentary Obit starts out with an estimated $22,072 for Kino Lorber in two theaters, and Buster’s Mal Heart checks in with $7,800 from a single theater for Well Go USA. The former should play steadily through the Summer in art-houses around the country, while the latter has a shot at wider attention, particularly if it draws in Rami Malek’s existing fans from Mr. Robot.

Overseas, the big news is the opening of Guardians of the Galaxy vol 2, which will earn $101.2 million this weekend, according to Disney. The film is running 57% ahead of the first movie when comparing like-for-like territories. Its performance in the UK is particularly strong, with $15.5 million representing a 67% market share, the 2nd-biggest opening day of 2017 (behind Disney’s own Beauty and the Beast), and a 86% increase from the debut of Guardians 1.

Overseas territories reporting so far for Guardians 2 are: UK, $15.5m; Australia $11.6m; Germany $8.3m; France $7.9m; Mexico $7.6m; Brazil $6.9m; Italy $4.1m; Indonesia $3.4m; Spain $3.3m; Philippines $3.2m; Thailand $2.7m; Taiwan $2.4m; Malaysia $2m; New Zealand $2m. Clearly, we’ll have much more to report on this on in the coming weeks!

- Weekend estimates

- How to be a Latin Lover comparison chart
- The Circle comparison chart
- Fate of the Furious comparison chart
- The Boss Baby comparison chart
- Beauty and the Beast comparison chart

Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2, Beauty and the Beast, The Fate of the Furious, The Circle, Sleight, How to Be a Latin Lover, Obit, Buster’s Mal Heart, Baahubali 2: The Conclusion, Eugenio Derbez, Rami Malek