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Weekend Predictions: Spider-Man’s Coming Home to the MCU

July 6th, 2017

Spider-Man: Homecoming

Spider-Man: Homecoming is the only film opened wide this weekend and that should help it dominate the box office. In fact, it should have the biggest opening since Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2. The competition will put a dent in Despicable Me 3’s box office during the weekend, but even so, it will likely break even sometime over the weekend. This weekend last year had The Secret Life of Pets at the top with just over $100 million, while there were four other films earning $10 million or more. Spider-Man: Homecoming should top The Secret Life of Pets, but the depth this year won’t be as good. If 2017 does lose the year-over-year competition, then its lead over 2016 could evaporate completely.

Spider-Man: Homecoming is the sixth Spider-Man movie in 15 years and the third incarnation of the character. I recently mentioned Franchise Fatigue as a reason why a number of movies have underperformed at the box office recently and six movies and three franchises in 15 years certainly makes that a possibility, which partially explains why Sony is projecting an opening weekend of just $80 million. Studios always lowball predictions, so even if the film underperforms, they can pretend it beat expectations so save face. Fortunately, I don’t think they will have to do that this time around, as the reviews are among the best of any wide release this year. Meanwhile, the film is topping Wonder Woman’s presales by a small margin. I think the film will top $100 million with relative ease and it could get to $125 million if everything goes well. Somewhere around $110 million seems the most likely. I’m going to be a little conservative with a prediction of $108 million.

Despicable Me 3 has similar reviews to Cars 3. Both are part of long-running franchises, so they will be a little more front-loaded than most family films. Despicable Me 3 had slightly weaker reviews and is dealing with much stronger competition, so it will fall a little bit faster. I’m going with a 57% decline to $31 million for a two-week total of $145 million. This is enough to cover its entire $75 million production budget, while it is doing even better internationally, so the film should be completely in the black by the end of the weekend. Unfortunately, it is not doing as well as the Minions did, so I think Gru is going to be overthrown by the minions. ... That could also be the plot of the next movie.

Baby Driver is one of the few original movies to come out this summer, its reviews are simply amazing, while it was a Wednesday opening last weekend. All of this suggests it will have long legs. On the other hand, there’s massive competition above, so that’s going to hurt. I think a sub-40% drop-off is likely, giving the film about $13 million over the weekend for a total of $57 million after two weeks of release. That’s almost enough to cover the film’s entire $34 million production budget.

Wonder Woman should remain in fourth place with close to $10 million. Spider-Man: Homecoming will take a chunk out of its box office numbers, but as long as it can recover this next weekend, it will still have a good shot at $400 million domestically.

Transformers: The Last Knight will also get hit by Spider-Man: Homecoming, as well as its sizable drop in its theater count. Look for just under $7 million over the weekend for a three-week total of $120 million.

- Spider-Man: Homecoming

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Wonder Woman, Baby Driver, Despicable Me 3, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2, Spider-Man: Homecoming, Cars 3, Transformers: The Last Knight, Spider-Man, Steve Carell