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Friday Estimates: Apes Win War with $22.1 million on Friday

July 15th, 2017

War for the Planet of the Apes

As expected, War for the Planet of the Apes earned first place on Friday. To match predictions, the film needed to make between $18 million and $19 million, but instead it earned $22.1 million during its first day of release. Furthermore, this is better than its previews were, so this suggests good word-of-mouth and longer than average legs. Its reviews are 94% positive and it earned a solid A from CinemaScore, so long legs wouldn’t be a shock. Perhaps it can reach $60 million over the weekend. Anything less than $55 million will be a little disappointing. Splitting the difference gets us a weekend target of $57 million.

Spider-Man: Homecoming needed nearly $14 million on Friday to match expectations and it earned $13.7 million. There’s not much that needs to be said. The film is doing well enough that it will likely hit $300 million domestically, making it the first Sony film to get there since Skyfall. The studio will really need to work with Disney to maintain this relationship, because they have very little else they can use as a tentpole release.

Despicable Me 3 also matched expectations nearly perfectly with $6.12 million on Friday. In fact, it earned a little more than it needed to to match its $17 million prediction, so this is good news.

Baby Driver also matched expectations nearly perfectly with $2.5 million on Friday. At worse, it will come within a rounding error of our $9 million prediction.

Unfortunately, there were a couple of films that struggled. The Big Sick only managed $2.47 million during its first day of wide release. It is hard to predict where it will go for the rest of the weekend, as it is not quite a wide release, nor it is a holdover. The reviews are 97% positive (There’s no CinemaScore, because it wasn’t a true new release.) so it should, at the very least, have better than average legs compared to new releases. Look for a little more than $7 million over the weekend. This is less than anticipated, but not bad for a film that cost $12 million for its distribution rights and $20 million for advertising. It could match that combined budget domestically, meaning it will break even sometime on the home market.

Wish Upon earned sixth place on Friday with $2.3 million, but it will slip to seventh place over the weekend with $5.5 million. Wonder Woman will surpass it on Saturday and easily win the weekend race. Wish Upon's slow start will be compounded by bad word-of-mouth, as a result of its 20% positive reviews and its C from CinemaScore. Maybe it will find a more receptive audience on the home market.

- Friday Box Office Chart

- War for the Planet of the Apes Comparisons
- The Big Sick Comparisons
- Wish Upon Comparisons

Filed under: Friday Estimates, Wonder Woman, Baby Driver, War for the Planet of the Apes, Despicable Me 3, Spider-Man: Homecoming, The Big Sick, Wish Upon