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Weekend Predictions: Will Leap! Make the Box Office Jump for Joy?

August 24th, 2017

Leap!

This will likely be the worst weekend of the year at the box office, at least so far. There’s only one wide release, Leap!, while there are two other films opening “nationwide” that both have a real shot at the top ten, All Saints and Birth of the Dragon. All three films combined might not earn more than $10 million over the weekend. By comparison, this weekend last year, Don’t Breathe opened with $26.41 million. 2017 is going to lose in the year-over-year comparison yet again and we can hardly afford to fall further back.

The Hitman’s Bodyguard is very likely going to remain in first place, because the competition is terrible. I don’t expect its legs to be great, as it only earned 39% positive reviews and a B plus from CinemaScore. That said, there’s no real competition, so it should remain just north of $10 million during its second weekend of release, putting its running tally at about $40 million.

Annabelle: Creation will remain in second place with between $7 million and $8 million. The film is not on pace to hit $100 million domestically, but it will come close enough to break even just on its domestic theatrical run. That is a very impressive feat.

Leap! is the widest release of the week, playing in 2,575 theaters. The film’s reviews are either awful or great, depending on if you look up the reviews under the name it is being released in America, Leap!, or its original name, Ballerina. Combined, the film is earning roughly 50% positive reviews, which isn’t bad for this time of year. Unfortunately, the ad push for this film is practically non-existent and the buzz is likewise nowhere to be heard. At this point, the film will be lucky if it avoids the Mendoza Line by any serious degree. This puts the film’s high end at about $6 million, while it could open with less than $3 million on the low end. Let’s split the difference and go with $4.5 million.

Logan Lucky’s reviews and more mature target demographic should help it hold on better than most films this weekend, but it will still fall close to 50% to $4 million. This should still be enough to grab a spot in the top five, but only because the competition is so weak.

All Saints is a faith-based film that is opening in just 846 theaters. For most films, this wouldn’t be enough to finish in the top five, but this one has two assets going for it. Firstly, faith-based films are very unpredictable and, secondly, the competition is so weak. The film only has a handful of reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, but they are all positive, so that’s a good sign, right? Not really. The Case for Christ earned good reviews and it bombed. On the high end, this film could compete for second place. On the low end, it will open below the Mendoza Line. I’m going with just under $4 million.

Wind River is expanding wide this weekend. Its reviews are great, but I’m not sure it will really grow at the box office. Its theater average was only a little over $4,000 last weekend and tripling its theater count will see that sliced in half, maybe even a little worse than that. Best cast scenario has the film earning nearly $5 million over the weekend to push its running tally to $10 million. I think just over $3 million is more likely.

The final new release of the week with a shot at the top ten is Birth of the Dragon. It is being mostly ignored by critics and there are only three reviews, most of them negative. Add in the lack of buzz and a small theater count of 1,617 and there’s little hope this film will be a hit. On the other hand, it only needs to earn about $3 million to hit the top ten and that’s not out of the question. I do think it will miss that mark, but it should at least come close.

- Leap! Comparisons
- All Saints Comparisons
- Birth of the Dragon Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Hitman’s Bodyguard, Birth of the Dragon, Annabelle: Creation, Ballerina, Wind River, Logan Lucky, All Saints
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