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Weekend Predictions: Will Hitman Assassinate the Box Office?

August 31st, 2017

The Hitman’s Bodyguard

Not only will this weekend likely be the worst weekend of the year, there’s a very high likelihood it will be the worst weekend in over a decade. It arguably could be the worst weekend of all time. There are no wide releases, or even semi-wide releases. The widest “new” release of the week is the 40th Anniversary re-release for Close Encounters of the Third Kind, but last week’s 3D re-release for Terminator 2: Judgment Day suggests it won't come close to the top ten. Tulip Fever is a long-delayed Weinstein Co. release and just avoiding the Mendoza Line would be a reason to celebrate. Up next in terms of theater counts is Hazlo Como Hombre. It is a Chilean film and films aimed at Hispanics have had success in recent years. They only need to earn just over $2 million during the three-day weekend to reach the top ten, so one of them could get there, but that’s not a sure thing. This leaves The Hitman’s Bodyguard with an easy path to first place. This weekend last year, the biggest new release was The Light Between Oceans, which earned just under $5 million. Sadly, this might be more than all three new releases earn this year. Last year the overall box office finished just under $100 million.

The Hitman’s Bodyguard will very likely complete the threepeat earning first place for the third week in a row. The film would have to fall less than 35% to avoid becoming the worst number one film in the 21st century. That’s possible, because there are no wide releases to be competition, while it is Labor Day long weekend and that should help. On the other hand, its reviews are only 40% positive and its CinemaScore is only a B plus and both of those factors suggest shorter than average legs. I think it will just avoid the bottom spot, but it will be close with just over $7 million over the three-day weekend and just over $9 million over the four-day weekend. This will be enough to push its running tally to $53 million, which is almost enough to cover its entire $30 million production budget. If it can merely match this figure internationally, then the film will break even early in its home market run.

Annabelle: Creation will remain in second place, again, this time with just under $6 million over the three-day weekend and just over $7 million over four days. It is starting to lose theaters and It will crush it next weekend, but this is still a fantastic result.

Wind River is actually expanding this weekend, which is something I wasn’t expecting, as it only managed a theater average of $2,196 last weekend. It might actually grow this week, if you compare last week’s three-day weekend and this week’s four-day weekend. Look for a $4 million / $5 million weekend for a running tally of $17 million.

Leap! should be next, also with $4 million / $5 million over the weekend. Its combined reviews, its A from CinemaScore, and its family friendly nature should help it hold on better than most films.

Dunkirk has overtaken Logan Lucky on the daily chart and that should give it the advantage over the weekend and both should earn just over $3 million / $4 million over the weekend.

Hazlo Como Hombre is a Chilean film about three close friends, one of whom comes out of the closet. The other two then react, first by trying to convince him he’s just confused, then by trying to help him adapt to his new gay life. The reviews are mixed, but films aimed at Hispanic crowds tend to earn mixed reviews, but still do well in theaters here. I think this one will earn a theater average of about $6,000 over the three-day weekend for an opening of close to $2.4 million. By Monday, it should have close to $3 million.

Tulip Fever started its production in 2004, but wasn’t finally shot until 2014. Unfortunately, it sat on a shelf for a couple of years, as Weinstein Co. has been struggling lately. It’s only coming out now, because some of the actors are more popular now than they were back when the film was shot. I don’t think it is going to work. There are only two reviews on Rotten Tomatoes and both of them are negative. Add in Weinstein’s struggles and there’s almost no chance of being a big hit. In fact, it could miss the Mendoza Line over the weekend with just under $1 million over three days. I think it will earn just over $1 million over the three-day weekend, but only barely.

Close Encounters of the Third Kind is getting a re-release this week, but after last week’s 3D re-release for Terminator 2: Judgment Day I really don’t think it will make an impact at the box office. T2 only managed $553,000 during last weekend and while I think Close Encounters will do better, it won't be by a huge amount. It will be in a virtual tie with Tulip Fever with just over $1 million over three days.

Also coming out this week is Inhumans. The TV pilot movie is getting an IMAX release this weekend. There are no reviews, so it is hard to judge how well the show will do on IMAX. There are also very few similar releases to go by. The film is playing in just under 400 theaters and I doubt it will hit $1 million.

- Hazlo Como Hombre Comparisons
- Tulip Fever Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Terminator 2: Judgment Day, Close Encounters of the Third Kind, Tulip Fever, Inhumans, Dunkirk, The Hitman’s Bodyguard, Annabelle: Creation, Ballerina, Wind River, Logan Lucky, Hazlo Como Hombre