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Weekend Predictions: How Will September End? With A Whimper.

September 28th, 2017

American Made

It looks like September will end with a whimper, as there are three wide releases, none of which are expected to be midlevel hits. American Made should have no trouble being the biggest of the three new releases, but it has a less than 50/50 chance of earning first place. Flatliners’ buzz started out quiet and it failed to grow by any significant margin. It looks like it will open below $10 million. Finally there’s Til Death Do Us Part, which may or may not manage a spot in the top ten. 2017’s mini-winning streak looks to be over, as this weekend last year had two films earning more than $20 million, Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children and Deepwater Horizon. This year, there will likely be none.

Kingsman: The Golden Circle missed expectations by about $10 million last weekend, so it really needs good legs this weekend. The weak competition should help it, but it will still fall just over 50% to about $19 million. This will be enough to repeat on top and keep it on pace for $100 million domestically. Meanwhile its early international numbers are promising and assuming it didn’t cost an unreasonable amount to advertise, it should make a profit and we could get a third installment in the franchise.

It should be next with just over $14 million during its fourth week of release. This will push its running tally over $280 and while it will take a couple more weeks to get to $300 million domestically, it will get there.

American Made is hoping to earn first place, but that seems unlikely. In fact, I don’t think it will earn second place, but it should come close. Its Tomatometer Score is 85% positive; however, its average score is just 6.8 out of 10. This means while the vast majority of critics like the movie, very few loved the movie. It think audiences will feel the same way giving it okay legs. Look for an opening of just under $14 million, leaving it in third place.

The Lego Ninjago Movie missed expectations by a significant margin last weekend, but as a family film, it should hold on the best this weekend. This weekend last year, Storks dipped just 37%. The Lego Ninjago Movie will drop faster, as it earned weaker reviews, a lower CinemaScore, and is technically a sequel. However, it should come close with about $12 million during its second weekend of release.

Up next is Flatliners, which is a delayed sequel to Flatliners. The buzz for this movie was never good, but I was expecting its buzz to grow as it neared its release. This hasn’t happened. Quiet buzz a month before a film debuts is worrying; quiet buzz the day before it opens is likely fatal. Furthermore, there are only two reviews on Rotten Tomatoes and both of them are negative. On the positive side, there’s not a lot of competition, so it should be able to earn fifth place, despite only pulling in $8 million.

Finally there’s Til Death Do Us Part which is a surprise wide release. I wasn’t expecting this film to open in more than a few hundred theaters. That said, there are no reviews, so it is opening much wider than its buzz can carry it. On the high end, it might compete for a spot in the top ten with $6 million, but it could also open with half that figure. I think the lower end is more likely than the higher end.

- American Made Comparisons
- Flatliners Comparisons
- ’Til Death Do Us Part Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Lego Ninjago Movie, American Made, Kingsman: The Golden Circle, Flatliners, It, Til Death Do Us Part, Kingsman